Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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China BlueChemical Ltd. (3983.HK)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Agricultural InputsSector: Basic Materials

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$6.57 - $11.37$8.63
Multi-Stage$12.79 - $14.07$13.42
Blended Fair Value$11.03
Current Price$1.92
Upside474.28%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS6.65%3.99%0.210.180.160.080.080.150.070.050.080.12
YoY Growth--16.29%14.84%93.75%5.26%-49.33%114.29%40.00%-37.50%-33.33%-14.29%
Dividend Yield--10.25%9.94%9.51%4.52%7.38%8.72%3.24%2.39%4.17%6.78%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)2,378.12
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)954.27
(=) Cash Retained (M)1,423.85
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)475.62297.26178.36
Cash Retained (M)1,423.851,423.851,423.85
(-) Cash Required (M)-475.62-297.26-178.36
(=) Excess Retained (M)948.221,126.581,245.49
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)4,610.004,610.004,610.00
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.210.240.27
LTM Dividend per Share0.210.210.21
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.210.240.27
(=) Adjusted Dividend0.410.450.48
WACC / Discount Rate6.20%6.20%6.20%
Growth Rate-0.07%0.93%1.93%
Fair Value$6.57$8.63$11.37
Upside / Downside242.20%349.67%492.34%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)2,378.122,400.192,422.472,444.962,467.652,490.552,565.27
Payout Ratio40.13%50.10%60.08%70.05%80.03%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)954.271,202.541,455.331,712.711,974.752,241.502,372.88

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate6.20%6.20%6.20%
Growth Rate-0.07%0.93%1.93%
Year 1 PV (M)1,121.061,132.281,143.50
Year 2 PV (M)1,264.811,290.251,315.94
Year 3 PV (M)1,387.651,429.721,472.64
Year 4 PV (M)1,491.551,552.151,614.59
Year 5 PV (M)1,578.321,658.891,742.72
PV of Terminal Value (M)52,135.0254,796.3757,565.32
Equity Value (M)58,978.4061,859.6764,854.71
Shares Outstanding (M)4,610.004,610.004,610.00
Fair Value$12.79$13.42$14.07
Upside / Downside566.33%598.88%632.72%

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