Definitive Analysis
Definitive Analysis

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CSSC (Hong Kong) Shipping Company Limited (3877.HK)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Rental & Leasing ServicesSector: Industrials

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$13.37 - $31.30$19.64
Multi-Stage$14.45 - $15.83$15.13
Blended Fair Value$17.38
Current Price$2.10
Upside727.76%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS32.03%0.00%0.120.100.090.090.080.030.240.000.000.00
YoY Growth--16.31%14.99%0.00%12.50%166.67%-87.45%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%
Dividend Yield--6.65%6.96%7.72%8.21%7.30%2.28%19.18%0.00%0.00%0.00%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)4,027.11
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)1,373.65
(=) Cash Retained (M)2,653.47
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)805.42503.39302.03
Cash Retained (M)2,653.472,653.472,653.47
(-) Cash Required (M)-805.42-503.39-302.03
(=) Excess Retained (M)1,848.042,150.082,351.43
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)6,168.666,168.666,168.66
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.300.350.38
LTM Dividend per Share0.220.220.22
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.300.350.38
(=) Adjusted Dividend0.520.570.60
WACC / Discount Rate7.11%7.11%7.11%
Growth Rate3.08%4.08%5.08%
Fair Value$13.37$19.64$31.30
Upside / Downside536.58%835.25%1,390.59%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)4,027.114,191.484,362.554,540.604,725.924,918.805,066.36
Payout Ratio34.11%45.29%56.47%67.64%78.82%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)1,373.651,898.232,463.353,071.443,725.064,426.924,686.38

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate7.11%7.11%7.11%
Growth Rate3.08%4.08%5.08%
Year 1 PV (M)1,755.231,772.251,789.28
Year 2 PV (M)2,106.172,147.232,188.69
Year 3 PV (M)2,428.242,499.602,572.34
Year 4 PV (M)2,723.112,830.332,940.68
Year 5 PV (M)2,992.383,140.373,294.16
PV of Terminal Value (M)77,101.6480,914.7584,877.25
Equity Value (M)89,106.7693,304.5297,662.39
Shares Outstanding (M)6,168.666,168.666,168.66
Fair Value$14.45$15.13$15.83
Upside / Downside587.86%620.27%653.91%

High-Yield Dividend Screener

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