Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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Beijing Tong Ren Tang Chinese Medicine Company Limited (3613.HK)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Medical - PharmaceuticalsSector: Healthcare

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$7.94 - $13.81$10.46
Multi-Stage$14.00 - $15.37$14.67
Blended Fair Value$12.56
Current Price$8.67
Upside44.92%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS-19.06%15.32%0.330.330.530.240.230.950.190.160.130.10
YoY Growth--0.00%-37.74%120.83%4.34%-75.79%400.00%18.75%23.08%30.00%26.07%
Dividend Yield--3.87%3.59%3.92%2.21%2.17%8.33%1.30%1.09%1.25%1.24%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)515.36
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)292.99
(=) Cash Retained (M)222.38
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)103.0764.4238.65
Cash Retained (M)222.38222.38222.38
(-) Cash Required (M)-103.07-64.42-38.65
(=) Excess Retained (M)119.30157.96183.72
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)837.10837.10837.10
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.140.190.22
LTM Dividend per Share0.350.350.35
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.140.190.22
(=) Adjusted Dividend0.490.540.57
WACC / Discount Rate6.61%6.61%6.61%
Growth Rate0.38%1.38%2.38%
Fair Value$7.94$10.46$13.81
Upside / Downside-8.36%20.61%59.24%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)515.36522.49529.71537.04544.46551.99568.55
Payout Ratio56.85%63.48%70.11%76.74%83.37%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)292.99331.68371.38412.12453.92496.79525.91

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate6.61%6.61%6.61%
Growth Rate0.38%1.38%2.38%
Year 1 PV (M)308.06311.12314.19
Year 2 PV (M)320.37326.78333.26
Year 3 PV (M)330.19340.16350.33
Year 4 PV (M)337.78351.44365.52
Year 5 PV (M)343.36360.80378.95
PV of Terminal Value (M)10,080.4610,592.6711,125.48
Equity Value (M)11,720.2212,282.9812,867.73
Shares Outstanding (M)837.10837.10837.10
Fair Value$14.00$14.67$15.37
Upside / Downside61.49%69.24%77.30%

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