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Definitive Analysis

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Ichigo Hotel REIT Investment Corporation (3463.T)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: REIT - Hotel & MotelSector: Real Estate

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$160,384.78 - $239,599.34$198,025.89
Multi-Stage$313,028.82 - $343,960.09$328,193.46
Blended Fair Value$263,109.68
Current Price$129,000.00
Upside103.96%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2025202420232022202120202019201820172016
DPS-7.66%0.00%6,100.735,251.722,886.611,894.941,184.819,086.516,976.225,075.413,705.870.00
YoY Growth--16.17%81.93%52.33%59.94%-86.96%30.25%37.45%36.96%0.00%0.00%
Dividend Yield--4.73%4.56%2.66%2.00%1.30%16.25%5.63%3.63%3.32%0.00%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)6,281.61
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)3,260.96
(=) Cash Retained (M)3,020.65
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)1,256.32785.20471.12
Cash Retained (M)3,020.653,020.653,020.65
(-) Cash Required (M)-1,256.32-785.20-471.12
(=) Excess Retained (M)1,764.332,235.452,549.53
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)0.320.320.32
(=) Excess Retained per Share5,466.386,926.057,899.16
LTM Dividend per Share10,103.3810,103.3810,103.38
(+) Excess Retained per Share5,466.386,926.057,899.16
(=) Adjusted Dividend15,569.7717,029.4318,002.54
WACC / Discount Rate7.51%7.51%7.51%
Growth Rate-2.00%-1.00%0.00%
Fair Value$160,384.78$198,025.89$239,599.34
Upside / Downside24.33%53.51%85.74%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)6,281.616,218.806,156.616,095.046,034.095,973.756,152.96
Payout Ratio51.91%59.53%67.15%74.77%82.38%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)3,260.963,702.074,134.024,556.974,971.045,376.385,691.49

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate7.51%7.51%7.51%
Growth Rate-2.00%-1.00%0.00%
Year 1 PV (M)3,408.563,443.353,478.13
Year 2 PV (M)3,504.513,576.403,649.01
Year 3 PV (M)3,556.793,666.793,779.03
Year 4 PV (M)3,572.383,720.433,873.05
Year 5 PV (M)3,557.353,742.593,935.47
PV of Terminal Value (M)83,433.4387,778.0092,301.71
Equity Value (M)101,033.02105,927.56111,016.39
Shares Outstanding (M)0.320.320.32
Fair Value$313,028.82$328,193.46$343,960.09
Upside / Downside142.66%154.41%166.64%

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