Definitive Analysis
Definitive Analysis

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Binjiang Service Group Co. Ltd. (3316.HK)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Real Estate - ServicesSector: Real Estate

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$364.83 - $795.61$745.61
Multi-Stage$122.41 - $133.85$128.03
Blended Fair Value$436.82
Current Price$21.53
Upside1,928.87%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS83.54%0.00%1.830.940.400.790.290.090.000.000.000.00
YoY Growth--94.76%133.40%-49.20%172.90%230.57%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%
Dividend Yield--9.65%6.31%2.38%4.43%2.41%1.36%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)1,105.79
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)764.04
(=) Cash Retained (M)341.74
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)221.16138.2282.93
Cash Retained (M)341.74341.74341.74
(-) Cash Required (M)-221.16-138.22-82.93
(=) Excess Retained (M)120.59203.52258.81
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)276.41276.41276.41
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.440.740.94
LTM Dividend per Share2.762.762.76
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.440.740.94
(=) Adjusted Dividend3.203.503.70
WACC / Discount Rate6.43%6.43%6.43%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Fair Value$364.83$745.61$795.61
Upside / Downside1,594.54%3,363.10%3,595.37%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)1,105.791,177.661,254.211,335.731,422.561,515.021,560.47
Payout Ratio69.09%73.28%77.46%81.64%85.82%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)764.04862.94971.471,090.461,220.821,363.521,443.44

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate6.43%6.43%6.43%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Year 1 PV (M)803.23810.84818.45
Year 2 PV (M)841.68857.71873.89
Year 3 PV (M)879.39904.64930.36
Year 4 PV (M)916.39951.63987.88
Year 5 PV (M)952.68998.701,046.47
PV of Terminal Value (M)29,441.6230,863.6632,340.12
Equity Value (M)33,834.9935,387.1736,997.18
Shares Outstanding (M)276.41276.41276.41
Fair Value$122.41$128.03$133.85
Upside / Downside468.56%494.64%521.69%

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