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China State Construction International Holdings Limited (3311.HK)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Engineering & ConstructionSector: Industrials

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$351.19 - $761.11$713.28
Multi-Stage$114.31 - $125.16$119.64
Blended Fair Value$416.46
Current Price$10.80
Upside3,756.07%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS16.99%13.22%0.610.510.440.390.330.280.350.290.280.24
YoY Growth--19.42%15.73%14.10%17.91%17.86%-20.00%19.32%5.54%15.95%35.19%
Dividend Yield--4.98%5.56%5.04%4.00%7.43%3.94%5.60%2.56%2.39%1.77%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)19,420.40
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)5,692.51
(=) Cash Retained (M)13,727.89
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)3,884.082,427.551,456.53
Cash Retained (M)13,727.8913,727.8913,727.89
(-) Cash Required (M)-3,884.08-2,427.55-1,456.53
(=) Excess Retained (M)9,843.8111,300.3412,271.36
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)5,074.445,074.445,074.44
(=) Excess Retained per Share1.942.232.42
LTM Dividend per Share1.121.121.12
(+) Excess Retained per Share1.942.232.42
(=) Adjusted Dividend3.063.353.54
WACC / Discount Rate6.42%6.42%6.42%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Fair Value$351.19$713.28$761.11
Upside / Downside3,151.74%6,504.41%6,947.36%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)19,420.4020,682.7222,027.1023,458.8624,983.6926,607.6327,405.86
Payout Ratio29.31%41.45%53.59%65.72%77.86%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)5,692.518,572.9111,803.7115,418.2919,452.9023,946.8725,350.42

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate6.42%6.42%6.42%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Year 1 PV (M)7,980.118,055.758,131.39
Year 2 PV (M)10,227.7410,422.5510,619.20
Year 3 PV (M)12,435.9212,792.9113,156.67
Year 4 PV (M)14,605.1715,166.8515,744.57
Year 5 PV (M)16,736.0017,544.3618,383.65
PV of Terminal Value (M)518,075.60543,098.85569,079.79
Equity Value (M)580,060.55607,081.26635,115.27
Shares Outstanding (M)5,074.445,074.445,074.44
Fair Value$114.31$119.64$125.16
Upside / Downside958.43%1,007.73%1,058.89%

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