Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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Sector

One REIT, Inc. (3290.T)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: REIT - OfficeSector: Real Estate

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$364,662.52 - $760,849.60$514,690.71
Multi-Stage$459,331.97 - $503,021.84$480,768.30
Blended Fair Value$497,729.50
Current Price$89,600.00
Upside455.50%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2025202420232022202120202019201820172016
DPS1.02%6.85%9,367.219,005.919,305.429,381.059,293.288,901.727,440.406,560.364,881.614,447.35
YoY Growth--4.01%-3.22%-0.81%0.94%4.40%19.64%13.41%34.39%9.76%-7.93%
Dividend Yield--10.45%10.71%10.95%10.36%8.50%10.36%7.22%7.95%6.82%6.70%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)8,238.28
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)5,461.50
(=) Cash Retained (M)2,776.79
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)1,647.661,029.79617.87
Cash Retained (M)2,776.792,776.792,776.79
(-) Cash Required (M)-1,647.66-1,029.79-617.87
(=) Excess Retained (M)1,129.131,747.002,158.91
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)0.400.400.40
(=) Excess Retained per Share2,803.884,338.205,361.07
LTM Dividend per Share13,562.1313,562.1313,562.13
(+) Excess Retained per Share2,803.884,338.205,361.07
(=) Adjusted Dividend16,366.0217,900.3318,923.21
WACC / Discount Rate7.04%7.04%7.04%
Growth Rate2.44%3.44%4.44%
Fair Value$364,662.52$514,690.71$760,849.60
Upside / Downside306.99%474.43%749.16%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)8,238.288,521.878,815.229,118.679,432.579,757.2710,049.99
Payout Ratio66.29%71.04%75.78%80.52%85.26%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)5,461.506,053.546,679.877,342.148,042.108,781.549,296.24

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate7.04%7.04%7.04%
Growth Rate2.44%3.44%4.44%
Year 1 PV (M)5,600.735,655.405,710.07
Year 2 PV (M)5,717.925,830.105,943.37
Year 3 PV (M)5,814.725,986.676,161.98
Year 4 PV (M)5,892.656,126.136,366.47
Year 5 PV (M)5,953.166,249.456,557.42
PV of Terminal Value (M)155,994.72163,758.61171,828.59
Equity Value (M)184,973.90193,606.35202,567.90
Shares Outstanding (M)0.400.400.40
Fair Value$459,331.97$480,768.30$503,021.84
Upside / Downside412.65%436.57%461.41%

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