Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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Hoshino Resorts REIT, Inc. (3287.T)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: REIT - Hotel & MotelSector: Real Estate

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$242,981.26 - $424,325.48$320,425.00
Multi-Stage$351,504.11 - $385,015.65$367,944.56
Blended Fair Value$344,184.78
Current Price$219,600.00
Upside56.73%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS-4.67%30.57%8,254.607,532.335,847.517,845.1410,778.7310,485.568,604.556,817.804,594.302,653.68
YoY Growth--9.59%28.81%-25.46%-27.22%2.80%21.86%26.21%48.40%73.13%363.11%
Dividend Yield--3.57%2.54%1.66%2.12%4.38%3.55%3.25%1.25%0.75%0.41%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)10,051.48
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)6,513.56
(=) Cash Retained (M)3,537.93
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)2,010.301,256.44753.86
Cash Retained (M)3,537.933,537.933,537.93
(-) Cash Required (M)-2,010.30-1,256.44-753.86
(=) Excess Retained (M)1,527.632,281.492,784.07
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)0.540.540.54
(=) Excess Retained per Share2,804.074,187.835,110.34
LTM Dividend per Share11,956.0511,956.0511,956.05
(+) Excess Retained per Share2,804.074,187.835,110.34
(=) Adjusted Dividend14,760.1216,143.8817,066.39
WACC / Discount Rate7.51%7.51%7.51%
Growth Rate1.36%2.36%3.36%
Fair Value$242,981.26$320,425.00$424,325.48
Upside / Downside10.65%45.91%93.23%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)10,051.4810,288.3910,530.8810,779.0911,033.1511,293.2011,631.99
Payout Ratio64.80%69.84%74.88%79.92%84.96%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)6,513.567,185.577,885.658,614.739,373.8110,163.8810,759.59

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate7.51%7.51%7.51%
Growth Rate1.36%2.36%3.36%
Year 1 PV (M)6,618.096,683.386,748.68
Year 2 PV (M)6,689.296,821.946,955.88
Year 3 PV (M)6,730.636,931.827,136.98
Year 4 PV (M)6,745.307,015.467,293.66
Year 5 PV (M)6,736.217,075.147,427.57
PV of Terminal Value (M)157,976.93165,925.33174,190.48
Equity Value (M)191,496.45200,453.07209,753.25
Shares Outstanding (M)0.540.540.54
Fair Value$351,504.11$367,944.56$385,015.65
Upside / Downside60.07%67.55%75.33%

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