Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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Activia Properties Inc. (3279.T)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: REIT - DiversifiedSector: Real Estate

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$231,559.61 - $373,396.71$295,492.34
Multi-Stage$493,544.38 - $541,816.10$517,214.44
Blended Fair Value$406,353.39
Current Price$115,100.00
Upside253.04%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS1.03%7.77%12,715.3613,008.0812,923.6112,247.1312,685.2212,079.2610,744.849,684.798,365.817,214.11
YoY Growth---2.25%0.65%5.52%-3.45%5.02%12.42%10.95%15.77%15.96%19.89%
Dividend Yield--11.88%9.60%9.08%8.50%9.76%6.41%6.76%6.24%4.99%4.28%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)25,990.60
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)23,150.38
(=) Cash Retained (M)2,840.22
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)5,198.123,248.831,949.30
Cash Retained (M)2,840.222,840.222,840.22
(-) Cash Required (M)-5,198.12-3,248.83-1,949.30
(=) Excess Retained (M)-2,357.90-408.60890.93
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)1.191.191.19
(=) Excess Retained per Share-1,975.28-342.30746.36
LTM Dividend per Share19,393.7619,393.7619,393.76
(+) Excess Retained per Share-1,975.28-342.30746.36
(=) Adjusted Dividend17,418.4819,051.4620,140.11
WACC / Discount Rate6.48%6.48%6.48%
Growth Rate-0.97%0.03%1.03%
Fair Value$231,559.61$295,492.34$373,396.71
Upside / Downside101.18%156.73%224.41%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)25,990.6025,998.8426,007.0826,015.3226,023.5726,031.8126,812.77
Payout Ratio89.07%89.26%89.44%89.63%89.81%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)23,150.3823,205.9623,261.5823,317.2323,372.9223,428.6324,801.81

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate6.48%6.48%6.48%
Growth Rate-0.97%0.03%1.03%
Year 1 PV (M)21,575.6421,793.5122,011.37
Year 2 PV (M)20,107.9320,516.0720,928.31
Year 3 PV (M)18,739.9819,313.4319,898.46
Year 4 PV (M)17,465.0218,181.2118,919.21
Year 5 PV (M)16,276.7317,115.2917,988.06
PV of Terminal Value (M)494,979.97520,480.79547,021.96
Equity Value (M)589,145.28617,400.30646,767.37
Shares Outstanding (M)1.191.191.19
Fair Value$493,544.38$517,214.44$541,816.10
Upside / Downside328.80%349.36%370.74%

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