Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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ADATA Technology Co., Ltd. (3260.TWO)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: SemiconductorsSector: Technology

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$1,875.89 - $2,210.12$2,071.20
Multi-Stage$510.49 - $559.31$534.45
Blended Fair Value$1,302.83
Current Price$157.00
Upside729.83%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS82.28%-5.82%2.811.694.552.591.000.144.192.790.341.80
YoY Growth--66.64%-62.93%75.90%159.74%613.06%-96.67%50.39%713.45%-80.91%-64.95%
Dividend Yield--3.31%1.70%5.95%3.18%1.21%0.35%10.77%3.83%0.46%5.80%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)3,468.56
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)1,619.43
(=) Cash Retained (M)1,849.13
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)693.71433.57260.14
Cash Retained (M)1,849.131,849.131,849.13
(-) Cash Required (M)-693.71-433.57-260.14
(=) Excess Retained (M)1,155.421,415.561,588.99
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)312.11312.11312.11
(=) Excess Retained per Share3.704.545.09
LTM Dividend per Share5.195.195.19
(+) Excess Retained per Share3.704.545.09
(=) Adjusted Dividend8.899.7210.28
WACC / Discount Rate5.28%5.28%5.28%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Fair Value$1,875.89$2,071.20$2,210.12
Upside / Downside1,094.83%1,219.24%1,307.72%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)3,468.563,694.023,934.134,189.854,462.194,752.234,894.79
Payout Ratio46.69%55.35%64.01%72.68%81.34%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)1,619.432,044.672,518.363,044.993,629.444,277.014,527.69

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate5.28%5.28%5.28%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Year 1 PV (M)1,923.941,942.181,960.41
Year 2 PV (M)2,229.732,272.202,315.07
Year 3 PV (M)2,536.812,609.632,683.84
Year 4 PV (M)2,845.172,954.593,067.13
Year 5 PV (M)3,154.833,307.213,465.42
PV of Terminal Value (M)146,640.31153,723.09161,076.94
Equity Value (M)159,330.79166,808.90174,568.82
Shares Outstanding (M)312.11312.11312.11
Fair Value$510.49$534.45$559.31
Upside / Downside225.15%240.41%256.25%

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