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Definitive Analysis

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Mori Hills REIT Investment Corporation (3234.T)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: REIT - DiversifiedSector: Real Estate

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$75,398.65 - $111,025.21$92,502.95
Multi-Stage$193,397.14 - $212,958.71$202,983.61
Blended Fair Value$147,743.28
Current Price$125,600.00
Upside17.63%
DecisionDon't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2025202420232022202120202019201820172016
DPS-10.01%-0.39%3,308.736,632.106,068.595,838.565,656.075,607.985,274.704,811.794,725.263,987.83
YoY Growth---50.11%9.29%3.94%3.23%0.86%6.32%9.62%1.83%18.49%15.96%
Dividend Yield--2.63%4.83%4.19%3.75%3.51%4.09%3.29%3.48%3.40%2.50%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)18,877.55
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)12,531.65
(=) Cash Retained (M)6,345.90
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)3,775.512,359.691,415.82
Cash Retained (M)6,345.906,345.906,345.90
(-) Cash Required (M)-3,775.51-2,359.69-1,415.82
(=) Excess Retained (M)2,570.393,986.214,930.08
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)1.921.921.92
(=) Excess Retained per Share1,341.312,080.122,572.67
LTM Dividend per Share6,539.406,539.406,539.40
(+) Excess Retained per Share1,341.312,080.122,572.67
(=) Adjusted Dividend7,880.718,619.539,112.07
WACC / Discount Rate6.48%6.48%6.48%
Growth Rate-3.60%-2.60%-1.60%
Fair Value$75,398.65$92,502.95$111,025.21
Upside / Downside-39.97%-26.35%-11.60%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)18,877.5518,387.6617,910.4817,445.6816,992.9416,551.9617,048.51
Payout Ratio66.38%71.11%75.83%80.55%85.28%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)12,531.6513,074.9313,581.5714,053.1114,491.0314,896.7615,769.88

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate6.48%6.48%6.48%
Growth Rate-3.60%-2.60%-1.60%
Year 1 PV (M)12,153.0412,279.1012,405.16
Year 2 PV (M)11,733.8611,978.5512,225.77
Year 3 PV (M)11,285.1911,640.0312,002.23
Year 4 PV (M)10,816.3611,272.1811,742.26
Year 5 PV (M)10,335.2110,882.4711,452.68
PV of Terminal Value (M)314,289.09330,931.25348,271.06
Equity Value (M)370,612.74388,983.59408,099.16
Shares Outstanding (M)1.921.921.92
Fair Value$193,397.14$202,983.61$212,958.71
Upside / Downside53.98%61.61%69.55%

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