Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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Nomura Real Estate Holdings, Inc. (3231.T)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Real Estate - ServicesSector: Real Estate

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$3,488.08 - $16,824.08$7,531.59
Multi-Stage$2,318.41 - $2,538.75$2,426.54
Blended Fair Value$4,979.07
Current Price$843.80
Upside490.08%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2025202420232022202120202019201820172016
DPS14.00%13.74%32.0926.7423.0017.9917.0216.6615.7715.5713.3411.65
YoY Growth--19.99%16.28%27.86%5.67%2.14%5.68%1.24%16.79%14.50%31.56%
Dividend Yield--3.80%3.30%3.37%2.70%3.02%4.17%3.33%3.17%3.03%3.27%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)73,608.00
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)29,778.00
(=) Cash Retained (M)43,830.00
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)14,721.609,201.005,520.60
Cash Retained (M)43,830.0043,830.0043,830.00
(-) Cash Required (M)-14,721.60-9,201.00-5,520.60
(=) Excess Retained (M)29,108.4034,629.0038,309.40
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)862.62862.62862.62
(=) Excess Retained per Share33.7440.1444.41
LTM Dividend per Share34.5234.5234.52
(+) Excess Retained per Share33.7440.1444.41
(=) Adjusted Dividend68.2674.6678.93
WACC / Discount Rate6.62%6.62%6.62%
Growth Rate4.58%5.58%6.58%
Fair Value$3,488.08$7,531.59$16,824.08
Upside / Downside313.38%792.58%1,893.85%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)73,608.0077,711.8482,044.4886,618.6891,447.9096,546.3799,442.76
Payout Ratio40.45%50.36%60.27%70.18%80.09%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)29,778.0039,138.6949,450.5960,790.6773,241.5186,891.7391,984.55

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate6.62%6.62%6.62%
Growth Rate4.58%5.58%6.58%
Year 1 PV (M)36,360.2436,707.9437,055.63
Year 2 PV (M)42,678.8243,498.9644,326.90
Year 3 PV (M)48,741.4350,153.1151,591.79
Year 4 PV (M)54,555.5756,672.4558,850.33
Year 5 PV (M)60,128.5563,058.9566,102.51
PV of Terminal Value (M)1,757,450.641,843,101.141,932,058.95
Equity Value (M)1,999,915.262,093,192.552,189,986.12
Shares Outstanding (M)862.62862.62862.62
Fair Value$2,318.41$2,426.54$2,538.75
Upside / Downside174.76%187.57%200.87%

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