Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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Argosy Research Inc. (3217.TWO)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Computer HardwareSector: Technology

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$227.75 - $493.89$325.87
Multi-Stage$172.87 - $188.40$180.49
Blended Fair Value$253.18
Current Price$159.50
Upside58.74%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR202420232022202120202019
DPS18.55%0.00%6.405.355.605.603.922.730.000.000.000.00
YoY Growth--19.63%-4.46%0.00%42.92%43.33%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%
Dividend Yield--4.25%2.95%5.02%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)1,065.19
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)576.67
(=) Cash Retained (M)488.52
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)213.04133.1579.89
Cash Retained (M)488.52488.52488.52
(-) Cash Required (M)-213.04-133.15-79.89
(=) Excess Retained (M)275.48355.37408.63
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)90.1490.1490.14
(=) Excess Retained per Share3.063.944.53
LTM Dividend per Share6.406.406.40
(+) Excess Retained per Share3.063.944.53
(=) Adjusted Dividend9.4510.3410.93
WACC / Discount Rate9.88%9.88%9.88%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Fair Value$227.75$325.87$493.89
Upside / Downside42.79%104.31%209.65%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)1,065.191,134.431,208.161,286.691,370.331,459.401,503.18
Payout Ratio54.14%61.31%68.48%75.66%82.83%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)576.67695.52827.38973.451,135.011,313.461,390.44

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate9.88%9.88%9.88%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Year 1 PV (M)627.04632.98638.93
Year 2 PV (M)672.48685.29698.22
Year 3 PV (M)713.31733.78754.65
Year 4 PV (M)749.81778.64808.30
Year 5 PV (M)782.27820.05859.28
PV of Terminal Value (M)12,038.1212,619.5713,223.27
Equity Value (M)15,583.0316,270.3216,982.65
Shares Outstanding (M)90.1490.1490.14
Fair Value$172.87$180.49$188.40
Upside / Downside8.38%13.16%18.12%

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