Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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TOKAI Holdings Corporation (3167.T)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: ConglomeratesSector: Industrials

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$636.06 - $931.87$778.54
Multi-Stage$722.85 - $788.22$754.94
Blended Fair Value$766.74
Current Price$1,041.00
Upside-26.35%
DecisionDon't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2025202420232022202120202019201820172016
DPS3.94%12.38%34.1432.1433.1531.1528.1428.1428.1030.5616.5110.65
YoY Growth--6.24%-3.05%6.41%10.71%0.00%0.14%-8.04%85.08%55.03%0.22%
Dividend Yield--3.44%3.29%3.68%3.51%3.11%2.83%3.01%2.85%1.97%1.63%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)10,439.00
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)4,460.00
(=) Cash Retained (M)5,979.00
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)2,087.801,304.88782.93
Cash Retained (M)5,979.005,979.005,979.00
(-) Cash Required (M)-2,087.80-1,304.88-782.93
(=) Excess Retained (M)3,891.204,674.135,196.08
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)130.71130.71130.71
(=) Excess Retained per Share29.7735.7639.75
LTM Dividend per Share34.1234.1234.12
(+) Excess Retained per Share29.7735.7639.75
(=) Adjusted Dividend63.8969.8873.87
WACC / Discount Rate12.19%12.19%12.19%
Growth Rate1.94%2.94%3.94%
Fair Value$636.06$778.54$931.87
Upside / Downside-38.90%-25.21%-10.48%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)10,439.0010,746.4111,062.8811,388.6711,724.0512,069.3112,431.39
Payout Ratio42.72%52.18%61.63%71.09%80.54%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)4,460.005,607.436,818.578,096.189,443.1210,862.3811,499.03

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate12.19%12.19%12.19%
Growth Rate1.94%2.94%3.94%
Year 1 PV (M)4,949.814,998.375,046.92
Year 2 PV (M)5,313.045,417.795,523.56
Year 3 PV (M)5,568.725,734.215,902.94
Year 4 PV (M)5,733.455,961.756,196.79
Year 5 PV (M)5,821.716,112.906,415.63
PV of Terminal Value (M)67,096.4570,452.4773,941.45
Equity Value (M)94,483.2098,677.49103,027.30
Shares Outstanding (M)130.71130.71130.71
Fair Value$722.85$754.94$788.22
Upside / Downside-30.56%-27.48%-24.28%

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