Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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Sector

Shanghai Menon Animal Nutrition Technology Co., Ltd. (301156.SZ)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Packaged FoodsSector: Consumer Defensive

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$7.80 - $16.54$11.07
Multi-Stage$6.12 - $6.66$6.39
Blended Fair Value$8.73
Current Price$17.66
Upside-50.57%
DecisionDon't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018
DPS31.40%0.00%0.430.340.020.020.210.110.130.000.000.00
YoY Growth--26.79%1,459.71%41.71%-92.86%95.70%-16.70%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%
Dividend Yield--3.07%2.83%0.16%0.08%1.13%0.58%0.69%0.00%0.00%0.00%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)58.89
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)43.18
(=) Cash Retained (M)15.70
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)11.787.364.42
Cash Retained (M)15.7015.7015.70
(-) Cash Required (M)-11.78-7.36-4.42
(=) Excess Retained (M)3.938.3411.29
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)141.61141.61141.61
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.030.060.08
LTM Dividend per Share0.300.300.30
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.030.060.08
(=) Adjusted Dividend0.330.360.38
WACC / Discount Rate10.00%10.00%10.00%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Fair Value$7.80$11.07$16.54
Upside / Downside-55.83%-37.30%-6.32%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)58.8962.7266.7971.1475.7680.6883.10
Payout Ratio73.33%76.67%80.00%83.33%86.67%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)43.1848.0853.4359.2865.6672.6176.87

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate10.00%10.00%10.00%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Year 1 PV (M)43.3043.7144.12
Year 2 PV (M)43.3444.1644.99
Year 3 PV (M)43.2944.5445.80
Year 4 PV (M)43.1844.8546.55
Year 5 PV (M)43.0145.0947.25
PV of Terminal Value (M)650.49681.91714.53
Equity Value (M)866.62904.25943.25
Shares Outstanding (M)141.61141.61141.61
Fair Value$6.12$6.39$6.66
Upside / Downside-65.35%-63.84%-62.28%

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