Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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Ji'an Mankun Technology Co., Ltd. (301132.SZ)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Hardware, Equipment & PartsSector: Technology

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$10.91 - $18.04$14.07
Multi-Stage$11.84 - $12.93$12.38
Blended Fair Value$13.22
Current Price$35.32
Upside-62.56%
DecisionDon't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018
DPS57.84%0.00%0.420.340.020.080.300.040.050.000.000.00
YoY Growth--22.57%1,727.08%-77.97%-72.30%616.81%-20.05%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%
Dividend Yield--1.59%1.42%0.06%0.19%0.68%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)136.86
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)60.25
(=) Cash Retained (M)76.61
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)27.3717.1110.26
Cash Retained (M)76.6176.6176.61
(-) Cash Required (M)-27.37-17.11-10.26
(=) Excess Retained (M)49.2459.5066.35
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)148.07148.07148.07
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.330.400.45
LTM Dividend per Share0.410.410.41
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.330.400.45
(=) Adjusted Dividend0.740.810.85
WACC / Discount Rate9.93%9.93%9.93%
Growth Rate2.95%3.95%4.95%
Fair Value$10.91$14.07$18.04
Upside / Downside-69.10%-60.16%-48.93%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)136.86142.27147.90153.75159.83166.15171.13
Payout Ratio44.02%53.22%62.41%71.61%80.80%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)60.2575.7192.31110.10129.15149.53158.30

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate9.93%9.93%9.93%
Growth Rate2.95%3.95%4.95%
Year 1 PV (M)68.2168.8769.54
Year 2 PV (M)74.9276.3977.86
Year 3 PV (M)80.5182.8885.29
Year 4 PV (M)85.0888.4491.89
Year 5 PV (M)88.7593.1597.71
PV of Terminal Value (M)1,355.911,423.051,492.83
Equity Value (M)1,753.391,832.771,915.12
Shares Outstanding (M)148.07148.07148.07
Fair Value$11.84$12.38$12.93
Upside / Downside-66.47%-64.96%-63.38%

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