Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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Company Industry Sector

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Industry

Sector

COFCO Technology & Industry Co., Ltd. (301058.SZ)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Industrial - MachinerySector: Industrials

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$3.80 - $5.67$4.69
Multi-Stage$5.09 - $5.58$5.33
Blended Fair Value$5.01
Current Price$10.94
Upside-54.19%
DecisionDon't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR20242023202220212020201920182017
DPS2.37%0.00%0.150.210.150.000.000.130.050.170.000.00
YoY Growth---27.34%36.85%14,590.29%0.00%-100.00%158.28%-69.90%0.00%0.00%0.00%
Dividend Yield--1.37%2.20%0.98%0.01%0.00%0.99%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)236.32
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)80.71
(=) Cash Retained (M)155.61
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)47.2629.5417.72
Cash Retained (M)155.61155.61155.61
(-) Cash Required (M)-47.26-29.54-17.72
(=) Excess Retained (M)108.35126.07137.89
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)521.58521.58521.58
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.210.240.26
LTM Dividend per Share0.150.150.15
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.210.240.26
(=) Adjusted Dividend0.360.400.42
WACC / Discount Rate9.93%9.93%9.93%
Growth Rate0.37%1.37%2.37%
Fair Value$3.80$4.69$5.67
Upside / Downside-65.23%-57.11%-48.15%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)236.32239.54242.82246.14249.50252.91260.49
Payout Ratio34.15%45.32%56.49%67.66%78.83%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)80.71108.56137.17166.54196.68227.62240.96

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate9.93%9.93%9.93%
Growth Rate0.37%1.37%2.37%
Year 1 PV (M)97.7898.7699.73
Year 2 PV (M)111.28113.51115.76
Year 3 PV (M)121.69125.36129.11
Year 4 PV (M)129.44134.68140.07
Year 5 PV (M)134.92141.78148.91
PV of Terminal Value (M)2,061.032,165.772,274.73
Equity Value (M)2,656.152,779.862,908.31
Shares Outstanding (M)521.58521.58521.58
Fair Value$5.09$5.33$5.58
Upside / Downside-53.45%-51.28%-49.03%

High-Yield Dividend Screener

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