Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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Yihai Kerry Arawana Holdings Co., Ltd (300999.SZ)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Packaged FoodsSector: Consumer Defensive

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$6.05 - $9.15$7.51
Multi-Stage$12.65 - $13.89$13.26
Blended Fair Value$10.38
Current Price$31.55
Upside-67.09%
DecisionDon't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR202420232022202120202019201820172016
DPS-4.63%0.00%0.520.540.080.110.330.660.530.490.430.00
YoY Growth---3.92%601.96%-30.63%-66.91%-49.04%24.70%7.57%14.61%0.00%0.00%
Dividend Yield--1.65%1.73%0.18%0.22%0.43%1.17%0.94%0.00%0.00%0.00%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)3,819.54
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)2,646.01
(=) Cash Retained (M)1,173.54
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)763.91477.44286.47
Cash Retained (M)1,173.541,173.541,173.54
(-) Cash Required (M)-763.91-477.44-286.47
(=) Excess Retained (M)409.63696.09887.07
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)5,433.665,433.665,433.66
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.080.130.16
LTM Dividend per Share0.490.490.49
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.080.130.16
(=) Adjusted Dividend0.560.620.65
WACC / Discount Rate7.11%7.11%7.11%
Growth Rate-2.00%-1.00%0.00%
Fair Value$6.05$7.51$9.15
Upside / Downside-80.82%-76.20%-71.01%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)3,819.543,781.353,743.533,706.103,669.043,632.353,741.32
Payout Ratio69.28%73.42%77.57%81.71%85.86%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)2,646.012,776.282,903.683,028.263,150.053,269.113,460.72

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate7.11%7.11%7.11%
Growth Rate-2.00%-1.00%0.00%
Year 1 PV (M)2,565.832,592.022,618.20
Year 2 PV (M)2,480.162,531.042,582.43
Year 3 PV (M)2,390.502,464.432,539.87
Year 4 PV (M)2,298.162,393.412,491.59
Year 5 PV (M)2,204.232,319.012,438.52
PV of Terminal Value (M)56,790.2859,747.4862,826.61
Equity Value (M)68,729.1772,047.3975,497.22
Shares Outstanding (M)5,433.665,433.665,433.66
Fair Value$12.65$13.26$13.89
Upside / Downside-59.91%-57.97%-55.96%

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