Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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Sector

Sirio Pharma Co., Ltd. (300791.SZ)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Packaged FoodsSector: Consumer Defensive

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$97.92 - $271.25$254.20
Multi-Stage$38.35 - $41.94$40.11
Blended Fair Value$147.16
Current Price$23.78
Upside518.82%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS72.76%14.34%0.870.330.300.290.100.060.170.891.050.55
YoY Growth--161.99%10.18%4.90%180.47%81.22%-67.75%-80.36%-15.41%92.84%140.21%
Dividend Yield--4.31%1.53%1.41%1.66%0.29%0.43%0.50%0.00%0.00%1.56%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)345.53
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)176.33
(=) Cash Retained (M)169.20
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)69.1143.1925.91
Cash Retained (M)169.20169.20169.20
(-) Cash Required (M)-69.11-43.19-25.91
(=) Excess Retained (M)100.09126.01143.28
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)253.34253.34253.34
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.400.500.57
LTM Dividend per Share0.700.700.70
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.400.500.57
(=) Adjusted Dividend1.091.191.26
WACC / Discount Rate6.68%6.68%6.68%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Fair Value$97.92$254.20$271.25
Upside / Downside311.78%968.96%1,040.66%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)345.53367.99391.91417.38444.51473.40487.60
Payout Ratio51.03%58.83%66.62%74.41%82.21%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)176.33216.47261.08310.58365.42426.06451.03

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate6.68%6.68%6.68%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Year 1 PV (M)201.02202.92204.83
Year 2 PV (M)225.14229.43233.76
Year 3 PV (M)248.71255.85263.12
Year 4 PV (M)271.73282.18292.93
Year 5 PV (M)294.21308.42323.18
PV of Terminal Value (M)8,473.688,882.969,307.91
Equity Value (M)9,714.4910,161.7710,625.73
Shares Outstanding (M)253.34253.34253.34
Fair Value$38.35$40.11$41.94
Upside / Downside61.25%68.68%76.38%

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