Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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Lens Technology Co., Ltd. (300433.SZ)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Hardware, Equipment & PartsSector: Technology

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$16.72 - $38.19$24.36
Multi-Stage$12.44 - $13.57$12.99
Blended Fair Value$18.68
Current Price$33.48
Upside-44.22%
DecisionDon't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS27.32%34.18%0.380.280.210.450.310.110.190.090.160.03
YoY Growth--32.41%34.99%-52.90%41.70%180.45%-41.14%109.02%-43.74%498.60%36.44%
Dividend Yield--1.48%2.00%1.56%3.82%1.20%0.77%2.13%0.53%1.04%0.26%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)4,095.91
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)2,218.35
(=) Cash Retained (M)1,877.56
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)819.18511.99307.19
Cash Retained (M)1,877.561,877.561,877.56
(-) Cash Required (M)-819.18-511.99-307.19
(=) Excess Retained (M)1,058.381,365.571,570.37
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)5,007.065,007.065,007.06
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.210.270.31
LTM Dividend per Share0.440.440.44
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.210.270.31
(=) Adjusted Dividend0.650.720.76
WACC / Discount Rate9.63%9.63%9.63%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Fair Value$16.72$24.36$38.19
Upside / Downside-50.07%-27.25%14.07%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)4,095.914,362.144,645.684,947.655,269.255,611.755,780.10
Payout Ratio54.16%61.33%68.50%75.66%82.83%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)2,218.352,675.223,182.113,743.594,364.635,050.585,346.60

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate9.63%9.63%9.63%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Year 1 PV (M)2,417.322,440.232,463.14
Year 2 PV (M)2,598.142,647.632,697.59
Year 3 PV (M)2,761.922,841.202,921.99
Year 4 PV (M)2,909.673,021.563,136.66
Year 5 PV (M)3,042.363,189.313,341.88
PV of Terminal Value (M)48,578.4950,924.8553,361.01
Equity Value (M)62,307.9065,064.7967,922.27
Shares Outstanding (M)5,007.065,007.065,007.06
Fair Value$12.44$12.99$13.57
Upside / Downside-62.83%-61.19%-59.48%

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