Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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Sector

Songcheng Performance Development Co.,Ltd (300144.SZ)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: LeisureSector: Consumer Cyclical

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$6.79 - $17.01$10.19
Multi-Stage$4.96 - $5.41$5.18
Blended Fair Value$7.69
Current Price$8.76
Upside-12.26%
DecisionDon't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS8.88%16.94%0.100.050.050.060.110.070.070.060.050.03
YoY Growth--86.95%-0.82%-0.55%-51.44%70.91%-1.70%13.14%25.39%49.43%49.97%
Dividend Yield--1.11%0.50%0.34%0.42%0.53%0.48%0.52%0.52%0.44%0.20%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)794.57
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)527.30
(=) Cash Retained (M)267.27
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)158.9199.3259.59
Cash Retained (M)267.27267.27267.27
(-) Cash Required (M)-158.91-99.32-59.59
(=) Excess Retained (M)108.35167.95207.68
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)2,619.362,619.362,619.36
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.040.060.08
LTM Dividend per Share0.200.200.20
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.040.060.08
(=) Adjusted Dividend0.240.270.28
WACC / Discount Rate9.27%9.27%9.27%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Fair Value$6.79$10.19$17.01
Upside / Downside-22.54%16.36%94.18%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)794.57846.22901.22959.801,022.191,088.631,121.29
Payout Ratio66.36%71.09%75.82%80.55%85.27%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)527.30601.58683.29773.07871.65979.771,037.19

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate9.27%9.27%9.27%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Year 1 PV (M)545.36550.53555.70
Year 2 PV (M)561.54572.24583.03
Year 3 PV (M)575.95592.49609.33
Year 4 PV (M)588.70611.34634.63
Year 5 PV (M)599.88628.86658.94
PV of Terminal Value (M)10,123.0210,611.9611,119.62
Equity Value (M)12,994.4613,567.4214,161.26
Shares Outstanding (M)2,619.362,619.362,619.36
Fair Value$4.96$5.18$5.41
Upside / Downside-43.37%-40.87%-38.28%

High-Yield Dividend Screener

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