Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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Escon Japan REIT Investment Corporation (2971.T)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: REIT - RetailSector: Real Estate

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$694,823.60 - $2,140,744.19$2,006,190.82
Multi-Stage$293,684.81 - $321,079.43$307,132.00
Blended Fair Value$1,156,661.41
Current Price$124,300.00
Upside830.54%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR20252024202320222021202020192018
DPS8.26%0.00%6,424.926,341.698,709.046,299.855,533.624,321.131,181.7465.500.000.00
YoY Growth--1.31%-27.18%38.24%13.85%28.06%265.66%1,704.27%0.00%0.00%0.00%
Dividend Yield--5.75%4.97%7.36%5.29%3.69%4.45%1.07%0.07%0.00%0.00%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)3,865.47
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)2,325.55
(=) Cash Retained (M)1,539.92
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)773.09483.18289.91
Cash Retained (M)1,539.921,539.921,539.92
(-) Cash Required (M)-773.09-483.18-289.91
(=) Excess Retained (M)766.831,056.741,250.01
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)0.360.360.36
(=) Excess Retained per Share2,135.412,942.733,480.94
LTM Dividend per Share6,476.016,476.016,476.01
(+) Excess Retained per Share2,135.412,942.733,480.94
(=) Adjusted Dividend8,611.429,418.749,956.95
WACC / Discount Rate6.81%6.81%6.81%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Fair Value$694,823.60$2,006,190.82$2,140,744.19
Upside / Downside458.99%1,513.99%1,622.24%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)3,865.474,116.724,384.314,669.294,972.795,296.025,454.90
Payout Ratio60.16%66.13%72.10%78.06%84.03%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)2,325.552,722.373,160.973,645.074,178.764,766.425,045.79

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate6.81%6.81%6.81%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Year 1 PV (M)2,524.932,548.862,572.79
Year 2 PV (M)2,719.082,770.872,823.15
Year 3 PV (M)2,908.102,991.583,076.64
Year 4 PV (M)3,092.083,210.993,333.30
Year 5 PV (M)3,271.133,429.123,593.17
PV of Terminal Value (M)90,947.3595,340.1499,901.05
Equity Value (M)105,462.66110,291.56115,300.11
Shares Outstanding (M)0.360.360.36
Fair Value$293,684.81$307,132.00$321,079.43
Upside / Downside136.27%147.09%158.31%

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