Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

Financial Statements

Company Industry Sector

Fundamentals

Margins Returns Growth Rates Metrics/Ratios

Valuations

Projections DCF DDM EPV Multiples Valuations

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Indicators Charts WACC Beta Predictability

Mode

Company Industry Sector

Ticker

Industry

Sector

Simple Mart Retail Co., Ltd. (2945.TW)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Grocery StoresSector: Consumer Defensive

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$17.88 - $27.17$22.25
Multi-Stage$37.86 - $41.62$39.70
Blended Fair Value$30.97
Current Price$39.75
Upside-22.08%
DecisionDon't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR202420232022202120202019
DPS-11.57%0.00%1.190.732.582.410.562.210.000.000.000.00
YoY Growth--64.38%-71.85%6.89%332.01%-74.69%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%
Dividend Yield--3.12%1.61%6.07%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)138.47
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)81.00
(=) Cash Retained (M)57.47
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)27.6917.3110.39
Cash Retained (M)57.4757.4757.47
(-) Cash Required (M)-27.69-17.31-10.39
(=) Excess Retained (M)29.7840.1647.09
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)67.8467.8467.84
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.440.590.69
LTM Dividend per Share1.191.191.19
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.440.590.69
(=) Adjusted Dividend1.631.791.89
WACC / Discount Rate6.95%6.95%6.95%
Growth Rate-2.00%-1.00%0.00%
Fair Value$17.88$22.25$27.17
Upside / Downside-55.01%-44.04%-31.64%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)138.47137.09135.72134.36133.01131.68135.64
Payout Ratio58.50%64.80%71.10%77.40%83.70%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)81.0088.8396.49103.99111.33118.52125.46

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate6.95%6.95%6.95%
Growth Rate-2.00%-1.00%0.00%
Year 1 PV (M)82.2283.0683.90
Year 2 PV (M)82.6684.3686.07
Year 3 PV (M)82.4685.0187.61
Year 4 PV (M)81.7185.1088.59
Year 5 PV (M)80.5184.7189.07
PV of Terminal Value (M)2,158.942,271.362,388.41
Equity Value (M)2,568.512,693.592,823.66
Shares Outstanding (M)67.8467.8467.84
Fair Value$37.86$39.70$41.62
Upside / Downside-4.75%-0.12%4.71%

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