Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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Sector

President Chain Store Corporation (2912.TW)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Grocery StoresSector: Consumer Defensive

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$152.09 - $272.21$202.54
Multi-Stage$158.58 - $172.78$165.55
Blended Fair Value$184.04
Current Price$256.50
Upside-28.25%
DecisionDon't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS5.69%6.82%11.598.998.998.998.998.7924.977.997.196.99
YoY Growth--28.96%0.00%0.00%0.00%2.27%-64.80%212.50%11.11%2.86%16.67%
Dividend Yield--4.62%3.34%3.34%3.42%3.30%3.11%8.38%2.70%2.88%2.98%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)11,176.74
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)9,357.04
(=) Cash Retained (M)1,819.70
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)2,235.351,397.09838.26
Cash Retained (M)1,819.701,819.701,819.70
(-) Cash Required (M)-2,235.35-1,397.09-838.26
(=) Excess Retained (M)-415.64422.61981.45
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)1,040.981,040.981,040.98
(=) Excess Retained per Share-0.400.410.94
LTM Dividend per Share8.998.998.99
(+) Excess Retained per Share-0.400.410.94
(=) Adjusted Dividend8.599.399.93
WACC / Discount Rate9.55%9.55%9.55%
Growth Rate3.69%4.69%5.69%
Fair Value$152.09$202.54$272.21
Upside / Downside-40.71%-21.04%6.13%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)11,176.7411,701.1712,250.2012,825.0013,426.7614,056.7714,478.47
Payout Ratio83.72%84.98%86.23%87.49%88.74%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)9,357.049,943.0810,563.5111,220.2811,915.4212,651.0913,392.58

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate9.55%9.55%9.55%
Growth Rate3.69%4.69%5.69%
Year 1 PV (M)8,989.749,076.449,163.13
Year 2 PV (M)8,634.978,802.328,971.28
Year 3 PV (M)8,292.448,534.688,781.59
Year 4 PV (M)7,961.868,273.468,594.13
Year 5 PV (M)7,642.928,018.648,408.99
PV of Terminal Value (M)123,557.87129,631.81135,942.32
Equity Value (M)165,079.80172,337.36179,861.44
Shares Outstanding (M)1,040.981,040.981,040.98
Fair Value$158.58$165.55$172.78
Upside / Downside-38.18%-35.46%-32.64%

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