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Definitive Analysis

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SinoPac Financial Holdings Company Limited (2890.TW)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Banks - RegionalSector: Financial Services

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$318.04 - $374.70$351.15
Multi-Stage$73.29 - $80.26$76.71
Blended Fair Value$213.93
Current Price$25.00
Upside755.72%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS5.30%12.94%0.720.560.700.610.610.560.430.280.340.37
YoY Growth--27.50%-19.26%14.29%0.00%10.06%29.74%50.44%-16.39%-7.24%72.22%
Dividend Yield--3.34%2.69%4.55%3.65%5.23%5.53%4.01%3.07%4.17%4.49%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)24,321.71
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)11,544.12
(=) Cash Retained (M)12,777.58
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)4,864.343,040.211,824.13
Cash Retained (M)12,777.5812,777.5812,777.58
(-) Cash Required (M)-4,864.34-3,040.21-1,824.13
(=) Excess Retained (M)7,913.249,737.3710,953.45
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)12,908.9412,908.9412,908.94
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.610.750.85
LTM Dividend per Share0.890.890.89
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.610.750.85
(=) Adjusted Dividend1.511.651.74
WACC / Discount Rate5.68%5.68%5.68%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Fair Value$318.04$351.15$374.70
Upside / Downside1,172.14%1,304.60%1,398.80%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)24,321.7125,902.6227,586.2929,379.4031,289.0633,322.8534,322.53
Payout Ratio47.46%55.97%64.48%72.99%81.49%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)11,544.1214,498.0617,787.2421,442.7625,498.3529,990.5631,748.34

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate5.68%5.68%5.68%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Year 1 PV (M)13,590.1913,719.0113,847.83
Year 2 PV (M)15,629.3115,927.0116,227.51
Year 3 PV (M)17,661.5018,168.4918,685.10
Year 4 PV (M)19,686.7620,443.8621,222.59
Year 5 PV (M)21,705.1422,753.5023,841.99
PV of Terminal Value (M)857,793.17899,224.90942,242.32
Equity Value (M)946,066.07990,236.781,036,067.34
Shares Outstanding (M)12,908.9412,908.9412,908.94
Fair Value$73.29$76.71$80.26
Upside / Downside193.15%206.84%221.04%

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