Definitive Analysis
Definitive Analysis

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China Shineway Pharmaceutical Group Limited (2877.HK)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Drug Manufacturers - Specialty & GenericSector: Healthcare

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$67.90 - $223.28$110.40
Multi-Stage$67.55 - $74.05$70.74
Blended Fair Value$90.57
Current Price$7.15
Upside1,166.74%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS10.37%4.10%0.540.420.320.600.320.330.350.350.350.36
YoY Growth--28.57%31.25%-46.65%87.63%-3.05%-4.64%-1.31%0.00%-3.03%0.00%
Dividend Yield--5.96%6.27%4.78%10.69%7.15%5.00%5.18%5.73%4.45%4.37%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)1,932.76
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)762.95
(=) Cash Retained (M)1,169.81
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)386.55241.60144.96
Cash Retained (M)1,169.811,169.811,169.81
(-) Cash Required (M)-386.55-241.60-144.96
(=) Excess Retained (M)783.25928.211,024.85
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)755.40755.40755.40
(=) Excess Retained per Share1.041.231.36
LTM Dividend per Share1.011.011.01
(+) Excess Retained per Share1.041.231.36
(=) Adjusted Dividend2.052.242.37
WACC / Discount Rate6.53%6.53%6.53%
Growth Rate3.42%4.42%5.42%
Fair Value$67.90$110.40$223.28
Upside / Downside849.71%1,444.11%3,022.83%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)1,932.762,018.142,107.282,200.372,297.562,399.052,471.02
Payout Ratio39.47%49.58%59.68%69.79%79.89%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)762.951,000.591,257.731,535.631,835.642,159.152,285.70

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate6.53%6.53%6.53%
Growth Rate3.42%4.42%5.42%
Year 1 PV (M)930.22939.21948.21
Year 2 PV (M)1,087.041,108.171,129.49
Year 3 PV (M)1,233.891,270.031,306.87
Year 4 PV (M)1,371.221,425.031,480.41
Year 5 PV (M)1,499.451,573.361,650.16
PV of Terminal Value (M)44,907.8147,121.4049,421.44
Equity Value (M)51,029.6353,437.2055,936.58
Shares Outstanding (M)755.40755.40755.40
Fair Value$67.55$70.74$74.05
Upside / Downside844.80%889.37%935.65%

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