Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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Shinkong Insurance Co., Ltd. (2850.TW)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Insurance - Property & CasualtySector: Financial Services

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$621.25 - $2,191.12$2,053.40
Multi-Stage$286.93 - $313.57$300.01
Blended Fair Value$1,176.70
Current Price$120.50
Upside876.52%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS13.49%17.44%4.992.543.201.951.802.651.821.511.571.07
YoY Growth--96.46%-20.63%64.10%8.33%-32.08%45.60%20.53%-3.82%47.00%6.80%
Dividend Yield--4.50%3.00%6.41%3.55%4.50%7.87%4.68%4.84%6.13%4.49%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)3,481.47
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)2,259.14
(=) Cash Retained (M)1,222.34
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)696.29435.18261.11
Cash Retained (M)1,222.341,222.341,222.34
(-) Cash Required (M)-696.29-435.18-261.11
(=) Excess Retained (M)526.04787.15961.22
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)315.99315.99315.99
(=) Excess Retained per Share1.662.493.04
LTM Dividend per Share7.157.157.15
(+) Excess Retained per Share1.662.493.04
(=) Adjusted Dividend8.819.6410.19
WACC / Discount Rate7.00%7.00%7.00%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Fair Value$621.25$2,053.40$2,191.12
Upside / Downside415.56%1,604.07%1,718.36%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)3,481.473,707.773,948.774,205.444,478.804,769.924,913.02
Payout Ratio64.89%69.91%74.93%79.96%84.98%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)2,259.142,592.182,958.983,362.513,806.004,292.934,544.54

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate7.00%7.00%7.00%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Year 1 PV (M)2,399.932,422.672,445.42
Year 2 PV (M)2,536.332,584.642,633.41
Year 3 PV (M)2,668.462,745.062,823.11
Year 4 PV (M)2,796.382,903.923,014.54
Year 5 PV (M)2,920.213,061.263,207.70
PV of Terminal Value (M)77,346.3181,082.1784,961.00
Equity Value (M)90,667.6294,799.7399,085.19
Shares Outstanding (M)315.99315.99315.99
Fair Value$286.93$300.01$313.57
Upside / Downside138.12%148.97%160.22%

High-Yield Dividend Screener

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