Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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Company Industry Sector

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Sector

Kagome Co., Ltd. (2811.T)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Packaged FoodsSector: Consumer Defensive

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$5,721.17 - $28,346.43$12,047.62
Multi-Stage$3,664.05 - $4,010.79$3,834.22
Blended Fair Value$7,940.92
Current Price$2,870.50
Upside176.64%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS-0.11%4.94%37.7835.0435.0534.4233.2837.9928.5323.3123.3917.60
YoY Growth--7.81%-0.03%1.83%3.44%-12.41%33.17%22.39%-0.32%32.87%-24.53%
Dividend Yield--1.29%0.96%1.13%1.10%0.95%1.35%0.91%0.62%0.81%0.80%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)13,420.00
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)5,277.00
(=) Cash Retained (M)8,143.00
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)2,684.001,677.501,006.50
Cash Retained (M)8,143.008,143.008,143.00
(-) Cash Required (M)-2,684.00-1,677.50-1,006.50
(=) Excess Retained (M)5,459.006,465.507,136.50
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)93.5293.5293.52
(=) Excess Retained per Share58.3869.1476.31
LTM Dividend per Share56.4356.4356.43
(+) Excess Retained per Share58.3869.1476.31
(=) Adjusted Dividend114.80125.57132.74
WACC / Discount Rate6.87%6.87%6.87%
Growth Rate4.77%5.77%6.77%
Fair Value$5,721.17$12,047.62$28,346.43
Upside / Downside99.31%319.70%887.51%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)13,420.0014,194.6015,013.9115,880.5216,797.1417,766.6718,299.67
Payout Ratio39.32%49.46%59.59%69.73%79.86%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)5,277.007,020.308,947.2611,073.2913,414.9315,990.0016,927.20

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate6.87%6.87%6.87%
Growth Rate4.77%5.77%6.77%
Year 1 PV (M)6,506.636,568.746,630.84
Year 2 PV (M)7,685.857,833.267,982.08
Year 3 PV (M)8,816.159,071.009,330.72
Year 4 PV (M)9,899.0010,282.3810,676.77
Year 5 PV (M)10,935.8511,467.7912,020.24
PV of Terminal Value (M)298,801.25313,335.66328,430.23
Equity Value (M)342,644.73358,558.83375,070.89
Shares Outstanding (M)93.5293.5293.52
Fair Value$3,664.05$3,834.22$4,010.79
Upside / Downside27.64%33.57%39.72%

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