Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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Elematec Corporation (2715.T)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Technology DistributorsSector: Technology

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$3,424.30 - $10,565.47$5,472.13
Multi-Stage$2,352.49 - $2,565.57$2,457.11
Blended Fair Value$3,964.62
Current Price$1,728.00
Upside129.43%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS20.54%12.28%88.9963.0139.9827.9934.9734.9717.5122.5242.4730.01
YoY Growth--41.24%57.61%42.84%-19.97%0.00%99.72%-22.23%-46.98%41.50%7.43%
Dividend Yield--4.37%3.46%3.18%2.14%3.99%3.28%1.33%2.46%4.14%2.04%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)5,375.00
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)3,480.00
(=) Cash Retained (M)1,895.00
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)1,075.00671.88403.13
Cash Retained (M)1,895.001,895.001,895.00
(-) Cash Required (M)-1,075.00-671.88-403.13
(=) Excess Retained (M)820.001,223.131,491.88
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)40.9540.9540.95
(=) Excess Retained per Share20.0329.8736.43
LTM Dividend per Share84.9984.9984.99
(+) Excess Retained per Share20.0329.8736.43
(=) Adjusted Dividend105.02114.86121.42
WACC / Discount Rate8.74%8.74%8.74%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Fair Value$3,424.30$5,472.13$10,565.47
Upside / Downside98.17%216.67%511.43%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)5,375.005,724.386,096.466,492.736,914.767,364.227,585.14
Payout Ratio64.74%69.80%74.85%79.90%84.95%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)3,480.003,995.354,562.995,187.545,874.016,627.797,016.26

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate8.74%8.74%8.74%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Year 1 PV (M)3,639.873,674.373,708.88
Year 2 PV (M)3,787.153,859.293,932.10
Year 3 PV (M)3,922.444,035.044,149.77
Year 4 PV (M)4,046.334,201.944,361.99
Year 5 PV (M)4,159.374,360.274,568.86
PV of Terminal Value (M)76,770.8980,478.9584,328.93
Equity Value (M)96,326.05100,609.86105,050.53
Shares Outstanding (M)40.9540.9540.95
Fair Value$2,352.49$2,457.11$2,565.57
Upside / Downside36.14%42.19%48.47%

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