Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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HD Hyundai Co., Ltd. (267250.KS)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Industrial - MachinerySector: Industrials

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$121,263.91 - $243,487.36$168,773.73
Multi-Stage$174,805.05 - $191,774.25$183,128.86
Blended Fair Value$175,951.30
Current Price$129,500.00
Upside35.87%
DecisionDon't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR202420232022202120202019201820172015
DPS3.75%0.00%4,600.035,499.584,599.685,549.563,827.463,827.430.000.000.000.00
YoY Growth---16.36%19.56%-17.12%44.99%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%
Dividend Yield--6.34%7.80%7.92%10.32%6.57%9.69%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)510,037.81
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)254,395.71
(=) Cash Retained (M)255,642.10
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)102,007.5663,754.7338,252.84
Cash Retained (M)255,642.10255,642.10255,642.10
(-) Cash Required (M)-102,007.56-63,754.73-38,252.84
(=) Excess Retained (M)153,634.53191,887.37217,389.26
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)70.6770.6770.67
(=) Excess Retained per Share2,174.032,715.343,076.21
LTM Dividend per Share3,599.873,599.873,599.87
(+) Excess Retained per Share2,174.032,715.343,076.21
(=) Adjusted Dividend5,773.906,315.216,676.08
WACC / Discount Rate6.59%6.59%6.59%
Growth Rate1.75%2.75%3.75%
Fair Value$121,263.91$168,773.73$243,487.36
Upside / Downside-6.36%30.33%88.02%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)510,037.81524,042.53538,431.80553,216.17568,406.49584,013.91601,534.33
Payout Ratio49.88%57.90%65.93%73.95%81.98%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)254,395.71303,432.43354,970.26409,109.58465,954.42525,612.52556,419.25

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate6.59%6.59%6.59%
Growth Rate1.75%2.75%3.75%
Year 1 PV (M)281,900.85284,671.49287,442.12
Year 2 PV (M)306,380.24312,432.29318,543.55
Year 3 PV (M)328,052.10337,820.18347,780.26
Year 4 PV (M)347,121.09360,970.20375,229.63
Year 5 PV (M)363,779.03382,010.75400,966.25
PV of Terminal Value (M)10,725,889.8311,263,445.5311,822,341.19
Equity Value (M)12,353,123.1312,941,350.4413,552,302.99
Shares Outstanding (M)70.6770.6770.67
Fair Value$174,805.05$183,128.86$191,774.25
Upside / Downside34.98%41.41%48.09%

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