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Jinshang Bank Co., Ltd. (2558.HK)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Banks - RegionalSector: Financial Services

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$9.20 - $16.70$12.32
Multi-Stage$13.42 - $14.73$14.06
Blended Fair Value$13.19
Current Price$1.32
Upside899.30%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS5.95%7.57%0.100.110.100.100.120.080.080.050.050.04
YoY Growth---2.43%6.45%-3.89%-14.74%56.89%-3.11%48.70%5.89%25.42%-18.83%
Dividend Yield--7.61%8.63%10.37%8.57%8.44%5.53%2.37%1.68%1.47%1.26%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)3,776.23
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)1,175.93
(=) Cash Retained (M)2,600.30
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)755.25472.03283.22
Cash Retained (M)2,600.302,600.302,600.30
(-) Cash Required (M)-755.25-472.03-283.22
(=) Excess Retained (M)1,845.052,128.272,317.08
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)5,838.655,838.655,838.65
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.320.360.40
LTM Dividend per Share0.200.200.20
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.320.360.40
(=) Adjusted Dividend0.520.570.60
WACC / Discount Rate7.03%7.03%7.03%
Growth Rate1.33%2.33%3.33%
Fair Value$9.20$12.32$16.70
Upside / Downside596.71%833.25%1,165.40%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)3,776.233,864.233,954.294,046.444,140.744,237.244,364.36
Payout Ratio31.14%42.91%54.68%66.46%78.23%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)1,175.931,658.232,162.372,689.113,239.223,813.524,037.03

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate7.03%7.03%7.03%
Growth Rate1.33%2.33%3.33%
Year 1 PV (M)1,534.151,549.291,564.43
Year 2 PV (M)1,850.871,887.591,924.66
Year 3 PV (M)2,129.512,193.182,258.11
Year 4 PV (M)2,373.212,468.292,566.19
Year 5 PV (M)2,584.902,715.002,850.27
PV of Terminal Value (M)67,876.6571,292.6874,844.89
Equity Value (M)78,349.3082,106.0286,008.54
Shares Outstanding (M)5,838.655,838.655,838.65
Fair Value$13.42$14.06$14.73
Upside / Downside916.60%965.34%1,015.98%

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