Definitive Analysis
Definitive Analysis

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ValueCommerce Co., Ltd. (2491.T)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Advertising AgenciesSector: Communication Services

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$6,707.87 - $27,519.24$17,403.31
Multi-Stage$3,727.03 - $4,079.41$3,899.98
Blended Fair Value$10,651.64
Current Price$795.00
Upside1,239.83%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS7.00%14.24%66.5380.3479.2862.4351.9947.4420.747.4312.2315.24
YoY Growth---17.18%1.34%27.00%20.06%9.59%128.82%179.14%-39.28%-19.70%-13.29%
Dividend Yield--8.13%7.40%4.66%1.67%1.45%2.67%1.00%0.52%2.83%3.91%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)3,011.00
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)1,227.00
(=) Cash Retained (M)1,784.00
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)602.20376.38225.83
Cash Retained (M)1,784.001,784.001,784.00
(-) Cash Required (M)-602.20-376.38-225.83
(=) Excess Retained (M)1,181.801,407.631,558.18
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)21.6621.6621.66
(=) Excess Retained per Share54.5764.9971.94
LTM Dividend per Share56.6556.6556.65
(+) Excess Retained per Share54.5764.9971.94
(=) Adjusted Dividend111.22121.65128.60
WACC / Discount Rate6.74%6.74%6.74%
Growth Rate5.00%6.00%7.00%
Fair Value$6,707.87$17,403.31$27,519.24
Upside / Downside743.76%2,089.10%3,361.54%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)3,011.003,191.573,382.973,585.843,800.894,028.824,149.69
Payout Ratio40.75%50.60%60.45%70.30%80.15%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)1,227.001,614.952,045.022,520.863,046.413,625.943,838.46

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate6.74%6.74%6.74%
Growth Rate5.00%6.00%7.00%
Year 1 PV (M)1,498.731,513.001,527.28
Year 2 PV (M)1,761.271,794.981,829.01
Year 3 PV (M)2,014.852,072.972,132.19
Year 4 PV (M)2,259.682,347.012,436.84
Year 5 PV (M)2,496.002,617.142,742.95
PV of Terminal Value (M)70,689.4474,120.4477,683.38
Equity Value (M)80,719.9784,465.5488,351.64
Shares Outstanding (M)21.6621.6621.66
Fair Value$3,727.03$3,899.98$4,079.41
Upside / Downside368.81%390.56%413.13%

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