Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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Sector

Dekon Food & Agriculture Group (2419.HK)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Agricultural Farm ProductsSector: Consumer Defensive

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$123.82 - $184.59$152.74
Multi-Stage$228.34 - $251.54$239.71
Blended Fair Value$196.23
Current Price$72.57
Upside170.40%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018
DPS0.00%0.00%0.000.260.000.000.300.070.050.000.000.00
YoY Growth---100.00%0.00%0.00%-100.00%309.53%45.92%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%
Dividend Yield--0.00%0.56%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)5,801.88
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)449.99
(=) Cash Retained (M)5,351.89
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)1,160.38725.23435.14
Cash Retained (M)5,351.895,351.895,351.89
(-) Cash Required (M)-1,160.38-725.23-435.14
(=) Excess Retained (M)4,191.514,626.654,916.75
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)383.11383.11383.11
(=) Excess Retained per Share10.9412.0812.83
LTM Dividend per Share1.171.171.17
(+) Excess Retained per Share10.9412.0812.83
(=) Adjusted Dividend12.1213.2514.01
WACC / Discount Rate7.59%7.59%7.59%
Growth Rate-2.00%-1.00%0.00%
Fair Value$123.82$152.74$184.59
Upside / Downside70.62%110.47%154.36%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)5,801.885,743.865,686.425,629.565,573.265,517.535,683.05
Payout Ratio7.76%24.20%40.65%57.10%73.55%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)449.991,390.292,311.733,214.614,099.204,965.775,256.82

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate7.59%7.59%7.59%
Growth Rate-2.00%-1.00%0.00%
Year 1 PV (M)1,279.161,292.221,305.27
Year 2 PV (M)1,956.961,997.112,037.65
Year 3 PV (M)2,503.782,581.212,660.22
Year 4 PV (M)2,937.583,059.333,184.82
Year 5 PV (M)3,274.163,444.663,622.18
PV of Terminal Value (M)75,528.5279,461.4683,556.57
Equity Value (M)87,480.1791,835.9896,366.72
Shares Outstanding (M)383.11383.11383.11
Fair Value$228.34$239.71$251.54
Upside / Downside214.65%230.32%246.62%

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