Definitive Analysis
Definitive Analysis

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Projections DCF DDM EPV Multiples Valuations

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Sector

China Power International Development Limited (2380.HK)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Regulated ElectricSector: Utilities

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$69.22 - $127.51$119.50
Multi-Stage$20.34 - $22.25$21.28
Blended Fair Value$70.39
Current Price$2.73
Upside2,478.33%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS14.12%7.25%0.170.140.060.110.100.090.070.090.140.10
YoY Growth--16.90%158.63%-51.38%11.70%17.85%32.93%-30.38%-31.66%39.98%17.49%
Dividend Yield--5.67%5.51%1.92%2.68%7.34%5.86%4.21%5.42%5.87%2.81%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)7,931.29
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)4,494.43
(=) Cash Retained (M)3,436.86
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)1,586.26991.41594.85
Cash Retained (M)3,436.863,436.863,436.86
(-) Cash Required (M)-1,586.26-991.41-594.85
(=) Excess Retained (M)1,850.602,445.452,842.01
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)12,370.1512,370.1512,370.15
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.150.200.23
LTM Dividend per Share0.360.360.36
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.150.200.23
(=) Adjusted Dividend0.510.560.59
WACC / Discount Rate6.28%6.28%6.28%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Fair Value$69.22$119.50$127.51
Upside / Downside2,435.61%4,277.18%4,570.75%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)7,931.298,446.838,995.879,580.6010,203.3410,866.5611,192.56
Payout Ratio56.67%63.33%70.00%76.67%83.33%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)4,494.435,349.696,297.137,345.148,502.799,779.9010,353.11

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate6.28%6.28%6.28%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Year 1 PV (M)4,986.235,033.495,080.76
Year 2 PV (M)5,470.555,574.755,679.93
Year 3 PV (M)5,947.486,118.216,292.18
Year 4 PV (M)6,417.096,663.886,917.71
Year 5 PV (M)6,879.487,211.767,556.76
PV of Terminal Value (M)221,914.97232,633.55243,762.35
Equity Value (M)251,615.80263,235.64275,289.68
Shares Outstanding (M)12,370.1512,370.1512,370.15
Fair Value$20.34$21.28$22.25
Upside / Downside645.08%679.48%715.18%

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