Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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AviChina Industry & Technology Company Limited (2357.HK)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Aerospace & DefenseSector: Industrials

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$24.51 - $102.67$61.88
Multi-Stage$12.39 - $13.55$12.96
Blended Fair Value$37.42
Current Price$4.04
Upside826.30%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS68.51%36.98%0.320.120.130.210.100.020.020.010.010.01
YoY Growth--159.77%-8.84%-35.36%107.37%328.06%4.68%50.00%8.98%0.00%0.00%
Dividend Yield--8.78%4.04%4.34%4.74%2.21%0.75%0.52%0.42%0.29%0.27%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)4,122.01
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)2,086.00
(=) Cash Retained (M)2,036.01
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)824.40515.25309.15
Cash Retained (M)2,036.012,036.012,036.01
(-) Cash Required (M)-824.40-515.25-309.15
(=) Excess Retained (M)1,211.611,520.761,726.86
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)7,984.437,984.437,984.43
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.150.190.22
LTM Dividend per Share0.260.260.26
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.150.190.22
(=) Adjusted Dividend0.410.450.48
WACC / Discount Rate7.28%7.28%7.28%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Fair Value$24.51$61.88$102.67
Upside / Downside506.80%1,431.80%2,441.35%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)4,122.014,389.944,675.294,979.185,302.835,647.515,816.94
Payout Ratio50.61%58.49%66.36%74.24%82.12%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)2,086.002,567.463,102.703,696.674,354.755,082.765,380.67

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate7.28%7.28%7.28%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Year 1 PV (M)2,370.822,393.292,415.76
Year 2 PV (M)2,645.632,696.022,746.89
Year 3 PV (M)2,910.682,994.243,079.38
Year 4 PV (M)3,166.223,287.993,413.23
Year 5 PV (M)3,412.503,577.333,748.46
PV of Terminal Value (M)84,455.9488,535.2092,770.57
Equity Value (M)98,961.80103,484.06108,174.29
Shares Outstanding (M)7,984.437,984.437,984.43
Fair Value$12.39$12.96$13.55
Upside / Downside206.79%220.81%235.35%

High-Yield Dividend Screener

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