Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

Financial Statements

Company Industry Sector

Fundamentals

Margins Returns Growth Rates Metrics/Ratios

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Projections DCF DDM EPV Multiples Valuations

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Industry

Sector

Lee & Man Paper Manufacturing Limited (2314.HK)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Paper, Lumber & Forest ProductsSector: Basic Materials

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$4.86 - $7.08$5.94
Multi-Stage$12.92 - $14.26$13.58
Blended Fair Value$9.76
Current Price$2.27
Upside329.80%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS-15.49%-2.19%0.120.060.180.330.250.290.410.290.220.17
YoY Growth--111.36%-66.92%-47.33%32.00%-11.33%-31.00%40.44%35.38%26.40%12.06%
Dividend Yield--5.10%2.54%5.11%6.16%3.98%4.83%6.22%3.14%3.61%3.97%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)2,866.94
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)829.32
(=) Cash Retained (M)2,037.62
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)573.39358.37215.02
Cash Retained (M)2,037.622,037.622,037.62
(-) Cash Required (M)-573.39-358.37-215.02
(=) Excess Retained (M)1,464.231,679.251,822.60
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)4,299.054,299.054,299.05
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.340.390.42
LTM Dividend per Share0.190.190.19
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.340.390.42
(=) Adjusted Dividend0.530.580.62
WACC / Discount Rate6.32%6.32%6.32%
Growth Rate-4.19%-3.19%-2.19%
Fair Value$4.86$5.94$7.08
Upside / Downside114.12%161.50%212.10%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)2,866.942,775.362,686.702,600.882,517.802,437.372,510.49
Payout Ratio28.93%41.14%53.36%65.57%77.79%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)829.321,141.831,433.521,705.421,958.482,193.632,322.20

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate6.32%6.32%6.32%
Growth Rate-4.19%-3.19%-2.19%
Year 1 PV (M)1,062.841,073.941,085.03
Year 2 PV (M)1,242.061,268.121,294.46
Year 3 PV (M)1,375.431,418.951,463.38
Year 4 PV (M)1,470.271,532.621,596.93
Year 5 PV (M)1,532.891,614.571,699.71
PV of Terminal Value (M)48,855.1351,458.6154,171.92
Equity Value (M)55,538.6158,366.8261,311.43
Shares Outstanding (M)4,299.054,299.054,299.05
Fair Value$12.92$13.58$14.26
Upside / Downside469.11%498.09%528.27%

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