Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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Shenzhou International Group Holdings Limited (2313.HK)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Apparel - ManufacturersSector: Consumer Cyclical

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$796.78 - $1,567.46$1,468.94
Multi-Stage$245.38 - $268.48$256.72
Blended Fair Value$862.83
Current Price$50.90
Upside1,595.14%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS5.81%14.47%2.121.641.371.811.721.601.371.650.830.73
YoY Growth--29.62%19.14%-24.08%5.23%7.47%16.78%-17.16%98.05%13.63%33.79%
Dividend Yield--3.64%2.29%1.77%1.48%1.34%1.57%1.76%2.59%1.90%1.97%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)11,847.85
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)6,284.60
(=) Cash Retained (M)5,563.26
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)2,369.571,480.98888.59
Cash Retained (M)5,563.265,563.265,563.26
(-) Cash Required (M)-2,369.57-1,480.98-888.59
(=) Excess Retained (M)3,193.694,082.274,674.67
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)1,503.221,503.221,503.22
(=) Excess Retained per Share2.122.723.11
LTM Dividend per Share4.184.184.18
(+) Excess Retained per Share2.122.723.11
(=) Adjusted Dividend6.316.907.29
WACC / Discount Rate6.33%6.33%6.33%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Fair Value$796.78$1,468.94$1,567.46
Upside / Downside1,465.38%2,785.93%2,979.49%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)11,847.8512,617.9613,438.1314,311.6115,241.8616,232.5816,719.56
Payout Ratio53.04%60.44%67.83%75.22%82.61%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)6,284.607,625.719,114.6110,764.8612,591.1214,609.3215,465.59

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate6.33%6.33%6.33%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Year 1 PV (M)7,104.077,171.417,238.75
Year 2 PV (M)7,910.298,060.968,213.05
Year 3 PV (M)8,703.418,953.269,207.84
Year 4 PV (M)9,483.599,848.3110,223.44
Year 5 PV (M)10,250.9910,746.1111,260.19
PV of Terminal Value (M)325,403.65341,120.77357,439.42
Equity Value (M)368,856.01385,900.82403,582.68
Shares Outstanding (M)1,503.221,503.221,503.22
Fair Value$245.38$256.72$268.48
Upside / Downside382.08%404.35%427.46%

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