Definitive Analysis
Definitive Analysis

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C&D Property Management Group Co. Limited (2156.HK)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Real Estate - ServicesSector: Real Estate

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$5.57 - $8.62$6.99
Multi-Stage$12.79 - $14.07$13.41
Blended Fair Value$10.20
Current Price$2.44
Upside318.03%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR20242023202220212020201920182017
DPS0.00%0.00%0.240.090.050.000.000.000.000.000.000.00
YoY Growth--169.47%80.43%0.00%-100.00%0.00%0.00%-100.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%
Dividend Yield--10.67%2.89%1.27%0.00%0.04%0.00%0.00%0.10%0.00%0.00%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)834.95
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)457.08
(=) Cash Retained (M)377.87
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)166.99104.3762.62
Cash Retained (M)377.87377.87377.87
(-) Cash Required (M)-166.99-104.37-62.62
(=) Excess Retained (M)210.88273.50315.24
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)1,394.401,394.401,394.40
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.150.200.23
LTM Dividend per Share0.330.330.33
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.150.200.23
(=) Adjusted Dividend0.480.520.55
WACC / Discount Rate6.43%6.43%6.43%
Growth Rate-2.00%-1.00%0.00%
Fair Value$5.57$6.99$8.62
Upside / Downside128.35%186.29%253.28%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)834.95826.60818.33810.15802.05794.03817.85
Payout Ratio54.74%61.80%68.85%75.90%82.95%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)457.08510.80563.39614.88665.29714.63756.51

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate6.43%6.43%6.43%
Growth Rate-2.00%-1.00%0.00%
Year 1 PV (M)475.11479.96484.81
Year 2 PV (M)487.42497.42507.52
Year 3 PV (M)494.80510.10525.72
Year 4 PV (M)497.96518.59539.87
Year 5 PV (M)497.51523.42550.39
PV of Terminal Value (M)15,375.1416,175.7617,009.39
Equity Value (M)17,827.9318,705.2519,617.68
Shares Outstanding (M)1,394.401,394.401,394.40
Fair Value$12.79$13.41$14.07
Upside / Downside423.99%449.78%476.59%

High-Yield Dividend Screener

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