Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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Company Industry Sector

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Industry

Sector

Shanghai Chicmax Cosmetic Co., Ltd. (2145.HK)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Household & Personal ProductsSector: Consumer Defensive

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$31.02 - $45.13$37.85
Multi-Stage$55.05 - $60.35$57.65
Blended Fair Value$47.75
Current Price$74.80
Upside-36.17%
DecisionDon't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR202420232022202120202019
DPS0.00%0.00%1.310.450.500.000.000.000.000.000.000.00
YoY Growth--191.51%-10.46%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%
Dividend Yield--4.01%1.85%1.67%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)1,665.50
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)1,069.99
(=) Cash Retained (M)595.51
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)333.10208.19124.91
Cash Retained (M)595.51595.51595.51
(-) Cash Required (M)-333.10-208.19-124.91
(=) Excess Retained (M)262.41387.32470.60
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)397.98397.98397.98
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.660.971.18
LTM Dividend per Share2.692.692.69
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.660.971.18
(=) Adjusted Dividend3.353.663.87
WACC / Discount Rate8.58%8.58%8.58%
Growth Rate-2.00%-1.00%0.00%
Fair Value$31.02$37.85$45.13
Upside / Downside-58.53%-49.40%-39.67%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)1,665.501,648.841,632.361,616.031,599.871,583.871,631.39
Payout Ratio64.24%69.40%74.55%79.70%84.85%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)1,069.991,144.231,216.871,287.941,357.471,425.491,509.04

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate8.58%8.58%8.58%
Growth Rate-2.00%-1.00%0.00%
Year 1 PV (M)1,043.191,053.831,064.48
Year 2 PV (M)1,011.451,032.201,053.15
Year 3 PV (M)975.991,006.181,036.98
Year 4 PV (M)937.85976.721,016.78
Year 5 PV (M)897.87944.63993.31
PV of Terminal Value (M)17,041.0717,928.4418,852.39
Equity Value (M)21,907.4222,941.9924,017.09
Shares Outstanding (M)397.98397.98397.98
Fair Value$55.05$57.65$60.35
Upside / Downside-26.41%-22.93%-19.32%

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