Definitive Analysis
Definitive Analysis

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Wenzhou Kangning Hospital Co., Ltd. (2120.HK)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Medical - Care FacilitiesSector: Healthcare

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$123.80 - $388.20$363.80
Multi-Stage$53.26 - $58.21$55.69
Blended Fair Value$209.75
Current Price$8.94
Upside2,246.15%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS19.83%0.00%0.970.440.700.410.230.390.250.370.250.25
YoY Growth--121.41%-37.16%70.16%77.08%-41.07%56.11%-31.32%48.33%-1.19%0.00%
Dividend Yield--8.40%3.58%6.53%2.40%0.96%2.14%0.81%0.98%0.81%0.65%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)144.34
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)99.60
(=) Cash Retained (M)44.74
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)28.8718.0410.83
Cash Retained (M)44.7444.7444.74
(-) Cash Required (M)-28.87-18.04-10.83
(=) Excess Retained (M)15.8726.6933.91
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)73.9473.9473.94
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.210.360.46
LTM Dividend per Share1.351.351.35
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.210.360.46
(=) Adjusted Dividend1.561.711.81
WACC / Discount Rate6.83%6.83%6.83%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Fair Value$123.80$363.80$388.20
Upside / Downside1,284.74%3,969.39%4,242.32%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)144.34153.72163.71174.35185.69197.76203.69
Payout Ratio69.01%73.21%77.40%81.60%85.80%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)99.60112.53126.72142.28159.32177.98188.41

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate6.83%6.83%6.83%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Year 1 PV (M)104.35105.34106.33
Year 2 PV (M)108.96111.03113.13
Year 3 PV (M)113.44116.69120.01
Year 4 PV (M)117.79122.32126.98
Year 5 PV (M)122.01127.91134.02
PV of Terminal Value (M)3,371.703,534.563,703.64
Equity Value (M)3,938.244,117.844,304.11
Shares Outstanding (M)73.9473.9473.94
Fair Value$53.26$55.69$58.21
Upside / Downside495.75%522.92%551.09%

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