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Definitive Analysis

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UNION biometrics Co., Ltd. (203450.KQ)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Security & Protection ServicesSector: Industrials

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$3,921.97 - $5,966.84$4,881.19
Multi-Stage$5,371.73 - $5,893.81$5,627.80
Blended Fair Value$5,254.50
Current Price$3,160.00
Upside66.28%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS-0.94%0.00%73.881.770.0076.6176.4077.4679.010.000.000.00
YoY Growth--4,081.98%0.00%-100.00%0.28%-1.37%-1.96%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%
Dividend Yield--2.58%0.05%0.00%2.18%1.59%3.83%2.88%0.00%0.00%0.00%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)5,290.86
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)922.13
(=) Cash Retained (M)4,368.73
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)1,058.17661.36396.81
Cash Retained (M)4,368.734,368.734,368.73
(-) Cash Required (M)-1,058.17-661.36-396.81
(=) Excess Retained (M)3,310.563,707.373,971.92
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)12.1712.1712.17
(=) Excess Retained per Share272.06304.67326.41
LTM Dividend per Share75.7875.7875.78
(+) Excess Retained per Share272.06304.67326.41
(=) Adjusted Dividend347.84380.45402.19
WACC / Discount Rate9.19%9.19%9.19%
Growth Rate0.29%1.29%2.29%
Fair Value$3,921.97$4,881.19$5,966.84
Upside / Downside24.11%54.47%88.82%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)5,290.865,359.165,428.345,498.425,569.405,641.295,810.53
Payout Ratio17.43%31.94%46.46%60.97%75.49%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)922.131,711.872,521.863,352.474,204.105,077.165,374.74

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate9.19%9.19%9.19%
Growth Rate0.29%1.29%2.29%
Year 1 PV (M)1,552.381,567.851,583.33
Year 2 PV (M)2,073.822,115.382,157.35
Year 3 PV (M)2,500.002,575.532,652.56
Year 4 PV (M)2,842.972,958.073,076.63
Year 5 PV (M)3,113.483,271.833,436.56
PV of Terminal Value (M)53,282.8055,992.7158,811.78
Equity Value (M)65,365.4468,481.3771,718.22
Shares Outstanding (M)12.1712.1712.17
Fair Value$5,371.73$5,627.80$5,893.81
Upside / Downside69.99%78.10%86.51%

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