Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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Sector

Ta Chen Stainless Pipe Co., Ltd. (2027.TW)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: SteelSector: Basic Materials

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$105.93 - $524.31$223.32
Multi-Stage$84.81 - $92.99$88.82
Blended Fair Value$156.07
Current Price$38.50
Upside305.38%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS-13.29%18.62%1.131.891.400.940.922.310.330.180.170.21
YoY Growth---40.00%34.67%48.78%2.38%-60.16%593.41%83.01%8.06%-17.93%0.00%
Dividend Yield--2.30%5.19%3.70%2.33%3.62%11.27%0.97%0.88%1.36%2.03%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)6,074.48
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)2,342.51
(=) Cash Retained (M)3,731.97
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)1,214.90759.31455.59
Cash Retained (M)3,731.973,731.973,731.97
(-) Cash Required (M)-1,214.90-759.31-455.59
(=) Excess Retained (M)2,517.072,972.663,276.38
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)2,270.462,270.462,270.46
(=) Excess Retained per Share1.111.311.44
LTM Dividend per Share1.031.031.03
(+) Excess Retained per Share1.111.311.44
(=) Adjusted Dividend2.142.342.47
WACC / Discount Rate6.03%6.03%6.03%
Growth Rate3.93%4.93%5.93%
Fair Value$105.93$223.32$524.31
Upside / Downside175.14%480.05%1,261.84%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)6,074.486,373.966,688.217,017.957,363.957,727.007,958.81
Payout Ratio38.56%48.85%59.14%69.43%79.71%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)2,342.513,113.723,955.274,872.235,870.006,954.307,361.90

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate6.03%6.03%6.03%
Growth Rate3.93%4.93%5.93%
Year 1 PV (M)2,908.652,936.632,964.62
Year 2 PV (M)3,451.443,518.173,585.55
Year 3 PV (M)3,971.584,087.334,205.31
Year 4 PV (M)4,469.774,644.304,823.89
Year 5 PV (M)4,946.675,189.285,441.31
PV of Terminal Value (M)172,817.17181,292.81190,097.78
Equity Value (M)192,565.28201,668.53211,118.46
Shares Outstanding (M)2,270.462,270.462,270.46
Fair Value$84.81$88.82$92.99
Upside / Downside120.29%130.71%141.52%

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