Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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Company Industry Sector

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Industry

Sector

Natural Food International Holding Limited (1837.HK)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Packaged FoodsSector: Consumer Defensive

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$1.12 - $1.65$1.38
Multi-Stage$2.01 - $2.21$2.10
Blended Fair Value$1.74
Current Price$0.72
Upside141.56%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS-3.58%0.00%0.030.000.000.020.000.040.110.020.000.00
YoY Growth--0.00%0.00%-100.00%0.00%-100.00%-65.43%363.95%0.00%0.00%0.00%
Dividend Yield--6.78%0.00%0.00%4.00%0.00%3.00%9.63%2.06%0.00%0.00%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)310.45
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)70.52
(=) Cash Retained (M)239.93
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)62.0938.8123.28
Cash Retained (M)239.93239.93239.93
(-) Cash Required (M)-62.09-38.81-23.28
(=) Excess Retained (M)177.84201.12216.64
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)2,172.692,172.692,172.69
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.080.090.10
LTM Dividend per Share0.030.030.03
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.080.090.10
(=) Adjusted Dividend0.110.130.13
WACC / Discount Rate7.99%7.99%7.99%
Growth Rate-2.00%-1.00%0.00%
Fair Value$1.12$1.38$1.65
Upside / Downside55.64%91.10%129.60%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)310.45307.34304.27301.23298.21295.23304.09
Payout Ratio22.72%36.17%49.63%63.09%76.54%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)70.52111.17151.01190.03228.26265.71281.28

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate7.99%7.99%7.99%
Growth Rate-2.00%-1.00%0.00%
Year 1 PV (M)101.91102.95103.99
Year 2 PV (M)126.89129.49132.12
Year 3 PV (M)146.38150.90155.52
Year 4 PV (M)161.17167.85174.74
Year 5 PV (M)171.98180.94190.26
PV of Terminal Value (M)3,650.083,840.154,038.06
Equity Value (M)4,358.424,572.294,794.70
Shares Outstanding (M)2,172.692,172.692,172.69
Fair Value$2.01$2.10$2.21
Upside / Downside178.36%192.02%206.23%

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