Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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Company Industry Sector

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Industry

Sector

Stella International Holdings Limited (1836.HK)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Apparel - Footwear & AccessoriesSector: Consumer Cyclical

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$3.25 - $4.94$4.04
Multi-Stage$4.39 - $4.79$4.59
Blended Fair Value$4.32
Current Price$1.85
Upside133.37%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS8.85%3.06%0.160.110.120.030.060.100.070.090.110.11
YoY Growth--49.40%-11.15%363.03%-53.60%-46.41%41.51%-14.62%-18.06%-0.17%-10.48%
Dividend Yield--7.61%9.07%12.80%2.15%4.83%6.54%6.21%5.73%6.56%4.25%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)295.72
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)230.66
(=) Cash Retained (M)65.06
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)59.1436.9622.18
Cash Retained (M)65.0665.0665.06
(-) Cash Required (M)-59.14-36.96-22.18
(=) Excess Retained (M)5.9228.1042.88
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)823.18823.18823.18
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.010.030.05
LTM Dividend per Share0.280.280.28
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.010.030.05
(=) Adjusted Dividend0.290.310.33
WACC / Discount Rate10.00%10.00%10.00%
Growth Rate1.06%2.06%3.06%
Fair Value$3.25$4.04$4.94
Upside / Downside75.78%118.65%167.08%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)295.72301.82308.05314.41320.90327.52337.35
Payout Ratio78.00%80.40%82.80%85.20%87.60%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)230.66242.66255.07267.88281.11294.77312.05

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate10.00%10.00%10.00%
Growth Rate1.06%2.06%3.06%
Year 1 PV (M)218.45220.61222.77
Year 2 PV (M)206.71210.82214.97
Year 3 PV (M)195.43201.29207.26
Year 4 PV (M)184.62192.03199.67
Year 5 PV (M)174.27183.07192.21
PV of Terminal Value (M)2,637.292,770.372,908.77
Equity Value (M)3,616.763,778.183,945.66
Shares Outstanding (M)823.18823.18823.18
Fair Value$4.39$4.59$4.79
Upside / Downside137.49%148.09%159.09%

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