Definitive Analysis
Definitive Analysis

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Maike Tube Industry Holdings Limited (1553.HK)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: SteelSector: Basic Materials

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$6.72 - $10.42$8.43
Multi-Stage$15.30 - $16.86$16.06
Blended Fair Value$12.25
Current Price$1.28
Upside856.70%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR202420232022202120202019201820172016
DPS0.00%0.00%0.110.090.090.100.000.000.000.000.050.00
YoY Growth--20.36%5.96%-14.35%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%-100.00%0.00%0.00%
Dividend Yield--8.02%7.25%8.57%9.25%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%2.71%0.00%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)310.23
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)86.63
(=) Cash Retained (M)223.60
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)62.0538.7823.27
Cash Retained (M)223.60223.60223.60
(-) Cash Required (M)-62.05-38.78-23.27
(=) Excess Retained (M)161.56184.82200.33
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)433.80433.80433.80
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.370.430.46
LTM Dividend per Share0.200.200.20
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.370.430.46
(=) Adjusted Dividend0.570.630.66
WACC / Discount Rate6.35%6.35%6.35%
Growth Rate-2.00%-1.00%0.00%
Fair Value$6.72$8.43$10.42
Upside / Downside424.66%558.58%714.02%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)310.23307.12304.05301.01298.00295.02303.87
Payout Ratio27.92%40.34%52.75%65.17%77.58%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)86.63123.89160.40196.17231.20265.52281.08

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate6.35%6.35%6.35%
Growth Rate-2.00%-1.00%0.00%
Year 1 PV (M)115.32116.49117.67
Year 2 PV (M)138.97141.82144.70
Year 3 PV (M)158.20163.09168.08
Year 4 PV (M)173.55180.74188.16
Year 5 PV (M)185.52195.18205.24
PV of Terminal Value (M)5,864.786,170.186,488.16
Equity Value (M)6,636.346,967.507,312.01
Shares Outstanding (M)433.80433.80433.80
Fair Value$15.30$16.06$16.86
Upside / Downside1,095.17%1,154.81%1,216.85%

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