Definitive Analysis
Definitive Analysis

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Guangzhou Rural Commercial Bank Co., Ltd. (1551.HK)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Banks - RegionalSector: Financial Services

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$1.93 - $2.65$2.29
Multi-Stage$5.23 - $5.78$5.50
Blended Fair Value$3.90
Current Price$1.43
Upside172.41%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS-8.73%-4.83%0.100.090.090.150.150.150.150.130.130.18
YoY Growth--3.34%0.00%-38.71%0.00%0.00%0.00%20.30%0.00%-28.57%12.00%
Dividend Yield--6.32%4.67%3.99%5.43%5.16%4.65%3.40%2.48%2.76%4.12%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)4,838.37
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)2,847.51
(=) Cash Retained (M)1,990.85
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)967.67604.80362.88
Cash Retained (M)1,990.851,990.851,990.85
(-) Cash Required (M)-967.67-604.80-362.88
(=) Excess Retained (M)1,023.181,386.061,627.98
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)12,942.6912,942.6912,942.69
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.080.110.13
LTM Dividend per Share0.220.220.22
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.080.110.13
(=) Adjusted Dividend0.300.330.35
WACC / Discount Rate7.03%7.03%7.03%
Growth Rate-7.34%-6.34%-5.34%
Fair Value$1.93$2.29$2.65
Upside / Downside34.82%60.20%84.99%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)4,838.374,531.534,244.143,974.993,722.903,486.803,591.40
Payout Ratio58.85%65.08%71.31%77.54%83.77%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)2,847.512,949.223,026.573,082.253,118.693,138.123,322.05

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate7.03%7.03%7.03%
Growth Rate-7.34%-6.34%-5.34%
Year 1 PV (M)2,726.052,755.472,784.89
Year 2 PV (M)2,585.852,641.972,698.69
Year 3 PV (M)2,434.152,513.822,595.20
Year 4 PV (M)2,276.562,376.442,479.57
Year 5 PV (M)2,117.402,234.152,356.00
PV of Terminal Value (M)55,600.4658,666.2361,865.76
Equity Value (M)67,740.4771,188.0774,780.10
Shares Outstanding (M)12,942.6912,942.6912,942.69
Fair Value$5.23$5.50$5.78
Upside / Downside266.01%284.63%304.04%

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