Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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Shanghai Kindly Medical Instruments Co., Ltd. (1501.HK)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Medical - Instruments & SuppliesSector: Healthcare

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$14.12 - $20.08$17.06
Multi-Stage$21.23 - $23.33$22.26
Blended Fair Value$19.66
Current Price$22.76
Upside-13.63%
DecisionDon't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR202420232022202120202019201820172016
DPS-2.47%0.00%0.280.240.260.280.170.310.390.000.070.00
YoY Growth--16.85%-7.69%-7.67%62.86%-45.58%-19.89%0.00%-100.00%0.00%0.00%
Dividend Yield--1.01%0.91%1.01%1.48%0.49%1.12%1.64%0.00%0.31%0.00%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)361.82
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)47.12
(=) Cash Retained (M)314.71
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)72.3645.2327.14
Cash Retained (M)314.71314.71314.71
(-) Cash Required (M)-72.36-45.23-27.14
(=) Excess Retained (M)242.34269.48287.57
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)171.10171.10171.10
(=) Excess Retained per Share1.421.581.68
LTM Dividend per Share0.280.280.28
(+) Excess Retained per Share1.421.581.68
(=) Adjusted Dividend1.691.851.96
WACC / Discount Rate9.74%9.74%9.74%
Growth Rate-2.00%-1.00%0.00%
Fair Value$14.12$17.06$20.08
Upside / Downside-37.95%-25.06%-11.76%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)361.82358.20354.62351.08347.56344.09354.41
Payout Ratio13.02%28.42%43.81%59.21%74.60%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)47.12101.79155.37207.87259.30309.68327.83

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate9.74%9.74%9.74%
Growth Rate-2.00%-1.00%0.00%
Year 1 PV (M)91.8292.7693.69
Year 2 PV (M)126.42129.01131.63
Year 3 PV (M)152.57157.29162.10
Year 4 PV (M)171.67178.79186.12
Year 5 PV (M)184.94194.57204.60
PV of Terminal Value (M)2,904.723,055.973,213.47
Equity Value (M)3,632.143,808.393,991.62
Shares Outstanding (M)171.10171.10171.10
Fair Value$21.23$22.26$23.33
Upside / Downside-6.73%-2.20%2.50%

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