Definitive Analysis
Definitive Analysis

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San Fang Chemical Industry Co., Ltd. (1307.TW)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Apparel - ManufacturersSector: Consumer Cyclical

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$34.89 - $58.49$45.25
Multi-Stage$71.83 - $78.84$75.27
Blended Fair Value$60.26
Current Price$30.15
Upside99.86%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS24.57%1.59%1.490.800.500.500.800.501.692.191.641.50
YoY Growth--87.50%60.00%0.00%-37.50%60.00%-70.59%-22.73%33.29%9.44%17.71%
Dividend Yield--3.40%2.71%2.38%2.47%3.70%2.91%7.38%6.72%4.36%3.94%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)1,179.03
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)1,074.11
(=) Cash Retained (M)104.92
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)235.81147.3888.43
Cash Retained (M)104.92104.92104.92
(-) Cash Required (M)-235.81-147.38-88.43
(=) Excess Retained (M)-130.89-42.4616.49
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)399.16399.16399.16
(=) Excess Retained per Share-0.33-0.110.04
LTM Dividend per Share2.692.692.69
(+) Excess Retained per Share-0.33-0.110.04
(=) Adjusted Dividend2.362.582.73
WACC / Discount Rate6.33%6.33%6.33%
Growth Rate-0.41%0.59%1.59%
Fair Value$34.89$45.25$58.49
Upside / Downside15.71%50.07%93.99%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)1,179.031,185.971,192.961,199.991,207.061,214.171,250.60
Payout Ratio91.10%90.88%90.66%90.44%90.22%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)1,074.111,077.831,081.551,085.281,089.011,092.761,156.80

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate6.33%6.33%6.33%
Growth Rate-0.41%0.59%1.59%
Year 1 PV (M)1,003.541,013.611,023.69
Year 2 PV (M)937.60956.52975.63
Year 3 PV (M)875.98902.64929.83
Year 4 PV (M)818.42851.79886.17
Year 5 PV (M)764.63803.79844.55
PV of Terminal Value (M)24,272.0025,515.3226,809.09
Equity Value (M)28,672.1630,043.6831,468.95
Shares Outstanding (M)399.16399.16399.16
Fair Value$71.83$75.27$78.84
Upside / Downside138.24%149.64%161.48%

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