Definitive Analysis
Definitive Analysis

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Changan Minsheng APLL Logistics Co., Ltd. (1292.HK)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Integrated Freight & LogisticsSector: Industrials

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$64.63 - $154.84$145.10
Multi-Stage$22.94 - $25.09$24.00
Blended Fair Value$84.55
Current Price$2.73
Upside2,997.07%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS18.32%-0.75%0.230.210.050.000.000.100.150.100.000.26
YoY Growth--8.04%322.94%0.00%0.00%-100.00%-33.34%50.01%0.00%-100.00%8.00%
Dividend Yield--10.30%11.79%3.03%0.00%0.00%5.07%4.57%2.33%0.00%3.90%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)129.73
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)68.26
(=) Cash Retained (M)61.47
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)25.9516.229.73
Cash Retained (M)61.4761.4761.47
(-) Cash Required (M)-25.95-16.22-9.73
(=) Excess Retained (M)35.5245.2551.74
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)166.63166.63166.63
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.210.270.31
LTM Dividend per Share0.410.410.41
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.210.270.31
(=) Adjusted Dividend0.620.680.72
WACC / Discount Rate6.52%6.52%6.52%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Fair Value$64.63$145.10$154.84
Upside / Downside2,267.54%5,215.15%5,571.63%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)129.73138.17147.15156.71166.90177.75183.08
Payout Ratio52.62%60.09%67.57%75.05%82.52%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)68.2683.0399.43117.61137.73159.97169.35

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate6.52%6.52%6.52%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Year 1 PV (M)77.2277.9578.68
Year 2 PV (M)86.0087.6489.29
Year 3 PV (M)94.6097.32100.08
Year 4 PV (M)103.03107.00111.07
Year 5 PV (M)111.29116.67122.25
PV of Terminal Value (M)3,350.283,512.103,680.11
Equity Value (M)3,822.423,998.674,181.49
Shares Outstanding (M)166.63166.63166.63
Fair Value$22.94$24.00$25.09
Upside / Downside740.25%779.00%819.18%

High-Yield Dividend Screener

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