Definitive Analysis
Definitive Analysis

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Datang Environment Industry Group Co., Ltd. (1272.HK)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Waste ManagementSector: Industrials

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$2.55 - $3.80$3.15
Multi-Stage$5.94 - $6.55$6.24
Blended Fair Value$4.69
Current Price$1.08
Upside334.58%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS-0.93%0.00%0.090.040.030.150.010.100.020.110.030.00
YoY Growth--108.34%72.06%-82.86%2,380.86%-93.74%293.87%-77.45%270.94%488.24%0.00%
Dividend Yield--10.66%5.74%3.03%16.73%0.89%7.97%1.40%4.64%1.01%0.16%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)1,076.16
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)454.96
(=) Cash Retained (M)621.20
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)215.23134.5280.71
Cash Retained (M)621.20621.20621.20
(-) Cash Required (M)-215.23-134.52-80.71
(=) Excess Retained (M)405.97486.68540.49
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)3,414.963,414.963,414.96
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.120.140.16
LTM Dividend per Share0.130.130.13
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.120.140.16
(=) Adjusted Dividend0.250.280.29
WACC / Discount Rate6.66%6.66%6.66%
Growth Rate-2.93%-1.93%-0.93%
Fair Value$2.55$3.15$3.80
Upside / Downside136.27%191.47%252.28%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)1,076.161,055.431,035.111,015.17995.62976.441,005.73
Payout Ratio42.28%51.82%61.37%70.91%80.46%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)454.96546.94635.20719.86801.03878.80930.30

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate6.66%6.66%6.66%
Growth Rate-2.93%-1.93%-0.93%
Year 1 PV (M)507.54512.76517.99
Year 2 PV (M)546.98558.30569.75
Year 3 PV (M)575.22593.18611.51
Year 4 PV (M)593.96618.82644.45
Year 5 PV (M)604.69636.48669.60
PV of Terminal Value (M)17,467.7418,386.1819,342.85
Equity Value (M)20,296.1221,305.7322,356.15
Shares Outstanding (M)3,414.963,414.963,414.96
Fair Value$5.94$6.24$6.55
Upside / Downside450.31%477.68%506.16%

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